HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    TEX 1@BOS 6
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:58 - 4th
    TOR 73@WSH 81
    +37.8pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
SF

SF

76-77

1
2
LAD

LAD

86-67

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
41,225 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SF

SF

league avg

LAD

LAD

.728

OPS

.715

▶

.789

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.347

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.55

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.38

1.41

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.10

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SF 1 · LAD 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000001001
LAD000002002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 18·Final/SeriesLAD win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off San Francisco Giants, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. LeeSF+28.5pp
  2. 2S. OhtaniLAD+26.2pp
  3. 3R. DeversSF−17.9pp

SF · top performer

SF
Patrick Bailey

Patrick Bailey

C

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

DH

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosLF
.2573000020
R. Devers1B
.2363001012
W. AdamesSS
.2262000021
M. Chapman3B
.2342000022
B. EldridgeDH
.0003000002
C. SchmittDH
.2383000012
J. LeeRF
.2613100011
P. BaileyC
.2192010011
D. GilbertCF
.2103000001
- W. Flores1B
.2421000000
- C. Koss2B
.2561000001
- J. EncarnacionRF
.2051000001
Team2711101014

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. WebbSP
7.042115103
J. LucchesiRP
1.01000013
Team8.052115116

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2834120001
M. BettsSS
.2603000011
F. Freeman1B
.2954011001
M. Muncy3B
.2473000000
T. HernándezLF
.2453000000
M. ConfortoDH
.1973000001
A. PagesCF
.2773000001
M. RojasSS
.2613010000
B. RortvedtC
.2943110000
- A. CallLF
.2460000000
Team29251015

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
Y. YamamotoSP
5.110067108
J. DreyerRP
0.20000111
M. KopechRP
0.10112118
B. TreinenRP
0.20002224
A. BandaRP
1.00000112
A. VesiaRP
1.00000211
Team9.01111014184

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 5-2

Jun 14SFSF6@LADLAD2
Jun 15SFSF5@LADLAD11
Jun 15SFSF4@LADLAD5
Sep 19SFSF1@LADLAD2today
Sep 20SFSF3@LADLAD6
Sep 21SFSF5@LADLAD7
Sep 21SFSF3@LADLAD1

Season series

LAD lead series 7-3

Jun 14SFSF6@LADLAD2
Jun 15SFSF5@LADLAD11
Jun 15SFSF4@LADLAD5
Jul 12LADLAD7@SFSF8
Jul 12LADLAD2@SFSF1
Jul 13LADLAD5@SFSF2
Sep 13LADLAD1@SFSF5
Sep 14LADLAD13@SFSF7
Sep 14LADLAD10@SFSF2
Sep 19SFSF1@LADLAD2today
Sep 20SFSF3@LADLAD6
Sep 21SFSF5@LADLAD7
Sep 21SFSF3@LADLAD1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 7th Inning

SFSF
P. Bailey

P. Bailey

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 6 BB

How it ended

LAD beat SF 2-1.

Win probability

LAD vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 6th Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 74% WP

Ohtani · doubled to right, Rortvedt to third.

SFTop 7th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 31% WP

Ramos · walked, Bailey to second, Lee to third.

LADTop 7th Inning · 1-2
+14pp→ 83% WP

Chapman · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000001001
LAD00000200—2

Period scoring

SF won 1 · LAD won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Betts 1

1
0

Inn 7

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
LAD

Play-by-play · 551 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  2. T9

    Ramos lined out to left.

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  5. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Heliot Ramos

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  6. T9

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  7. T9

    Encarnación struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

    +4pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  11. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Jerar Encarnacion

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  12. T9

    Encarnación hit for Gilbert

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  13. T9

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  14. T9

    Koss struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

    +4pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  21. T9

    Alex Vesia pitches to Christian Koss

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  22. T9

    Vesia relieved Banda

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  23. T9

    Koss hit for Bailey

    ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  24. T9

    Call in left field.

    SF 1·LAD 2

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 1·LAD 2

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 1·LAD 2

  27. B8

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  28. B8

    Freeman grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 1·LAD 2

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

1

Runs

2

1

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

1

TB

7

0

HR

0

10

BB

1

14

K

5

17

LOB

11

Player projections

LAD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low
  • Landen RouppSF
    5.9± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.5± 3.7low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.7± 1.1high
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.5± 0.5high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Matt ChapmanSF
    2.5± 3.7high
  • Bryce EldridgeSF
    2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Matt ChapmanSF
    1.3± 2.4high
  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.7low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    58.8%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.7%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.3%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872