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FINAL+6MIA
DET

DET

84-64

2
8
MIA

MIA

69-79

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
16,926 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

DET 2 · MIA 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0001001002
MIA120203008

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 12·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off Detroit Tigers, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Riley Greene

Riley Greene

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Heriberto Hernandez

Heriberto Hernandez

LF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET84-64
2
8
MIA69-79
DET84-64·MIA69-79
DET

DET

84-64

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-33000010
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-33120000
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
2-44121102
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-33000013
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-44000001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-11000001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-22000001
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-22000000
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-11000001
SPRINT28.278
T. SweeneyT. SweeneySS
0-33000000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
Team4-31312411210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
3.1444022
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.2211010
C. PaddackC. PaddackSP
3.0233121
Team8.0888153
MIA

MIA

69-79

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
0-44000001
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44111100
SPRINT27.354
J. MarseeJ. Marsee★CF
0-44000001
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000001
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
2-33321110
SPRINT28.483
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
2-44220000
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
1-44113101
SPRINT28.891
M. AcostaM. Acosta★SS
1-22110001
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
1-33013000
SPRINT28.381
Team8-3232888315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. AlcantaraS. Alcantara★SP
7.0422081
C. GibsonC. GibsonRP
1.0000110
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0000110
Team9.04222101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Skubal
    45 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      47%·87.8 mph·47% whiff
    • SI
      20%·97.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Paddack
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • CH
      39%·84.7 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Montero
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FS
      61%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.7 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    96 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      28%·90.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·97.1 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      20%·90.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      13%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      61%·89.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Gibson
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      29%·77.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      24%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      12%·77.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·92.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

8

2

Runs

8

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Sep 12DETDET2@MIAMIA8today
Sep 13DETDET4@MIAMIA6
Sep 14DETDET2@MIAMIA0

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

Sep 12DETDET2@MIAMIA8today
Sep 13DETDET4@MIAMIA6
Sep 14DETDET2@MIAMIA0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 4th Inning

DETDET
R. Greene

R. Greene

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 4 H

MIAMIA
H. Hernandez

H. Hernandez

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H

How it ended

MIA beat DET 8-2. Sanoja's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

MIA vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 56% WP

Hern · ández homered to right (354 feet).

DETTop 4th Inning · 1-3
+11pp→ 34% WP

Greene · homered to center (401 feet).

MIABottom 4th Inning · 1-5
+18pp→ 87% WP

Sanoja · doubled to left, Acosta scored and Hernández scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0001001002
MIA12020300—8

Period scoring

DET won 1 · MIA won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Ram 1

0
2

Inn 2

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
2

Inn 4

Greene 1

Sanoja 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Wiemer 3

1
0

Inn 7

Sweeney 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

DET
MIA

Play-by-play · 473 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  2. T9

    Sweeney grounded into fielder's choice to second, Keith out at second.

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  7. T9

    George Soriano pitches to Trey Sweeney

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  8. T9

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  9. T9

    Keith grounded into fielder's choice to second, Torkelson out at second.

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  12. T9

    George Soriano pitches to Colt Keith

    · ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  13. T9

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  14. T9

    Torkelson walked.

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  20. T9

    George Soriano pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  21. T9

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  22. T9

    Greene struck out swinging.

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

  30. T9

    George Soriano pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    DET 2·MIA 8

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

2

Runs

8

4

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

8

TB

19

1

HR

3

2

BB

1

10

K

5

11

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

MIA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    4.5± 3.1low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    46.1%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.4%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.3%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 13, 25sim 97
    64
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 29, 25sim 95
    124
    5(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    175
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 94
    106
    30(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    183
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 94
    252
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs