MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5ATL

HOU

81-69

ATL

66-83

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

32,807 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
46.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.3%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.5%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Spencer StriderATL
6.1± 3.1low
Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 1.2high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.8high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.5high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high
Mauricio DubonATL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.7± 2.8low
JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.0low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.5± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

ATL

.731

OPS

.715

▶

.750

.320

OBP

.319

.323

4.56

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.10

4.88

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.28

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

HOU 3 · ATL 8 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	3
ATL	1	1	0	0	3	1	2	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.297	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
Y. AlvarezDH	.273	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
C. CorreaSS	.288	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Walker1B	.239	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. MeyersCF	.310	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.259	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	.240	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
Z. ColeLF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
M. DubonSS	.247	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.204	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	3	9	3	1	2	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.297

.273

.288

.239

.310

.259

.240

.400

.247

.204

.267

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
F. ValdezSP	4.0	6	5	5	4	2	76
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	21
S. OkertRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	21
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	25
J.P. FranceSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	18
Team	8.0	11	8	8	6	7	161

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

161

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.261	3	2	1	0	0	2	0
M. Olson1B	.273	4	2	2	1	1	1	0
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.271	4	1	0	0	0	1	3
O. Albies2B	.239	5	0	2	3	0	0	0
H. KimSS	.289	4	1	3	1	0	1	0
M. OzunaDH	.229	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Harris IICF	.239	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. LeonC	.200	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.232	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. WhiteCF	.234	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	8	11	8	2	6	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. WentzRP	4.0	6	2	2	1	5	93
H. StrattonRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	2	37
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20
P. JohnsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
Team	9.0	9	3	3	2	11	174

Team

HOU

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.