HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 4@MIN 4
    -2.2pppeak
  • MLBTop 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -18.1pphigh
  • MLBMid 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBBot 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA6:34 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 27
    +9.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
CIN

CIN

67-62

5
6
ARI

ARI

63-66

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
29,252 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

CIN

league avg

ARI

ARI

.709

OPS

◀

.715

.690

.314

OBP

◀

.319

.306

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

4.22

4.75

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.24

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

CIN 5 · ARI 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
CIN020001010105
ARI103000000116

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 22·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Cincinnati Reds, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. CarrollARI+60.0pp
  2. 2M. AndujarCIN+44.5pp
  3. 3G. AshcraftCIN−39.0pp

CIN · top performer

CIN
Miguel Andujar

Miguel Andujar

DH

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlCF
.2665010001
G. LuxLF
.2783000001
E. De La CruzSS
.2745121002
A. HaysLF
.2554001002
N. MarteRF
.3023100010
S. SteerLF
.2354000000
K. Hayes3B
.2664211000
J. TrevinoC
.2524011001
M. McLain2B
.2202000010
- M. AndujarDH
.3882110000
Team36564027

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
Z. LittellSP
3.04433377
S. MollRP
1.11000216
C. PhillipsRP
1.20000217
B. SuterRP
1.00001014
T. SantillanRP
1.00000213
E. PaganRP
1.01000113
G. AshcraftRP
1.01100015
S. BarlowRP
0.0110002
Team10.0863410167

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
G. PerdomoSS
.2881110030
K. Marte2B
.2925011002
C. CarrollRF
.2534210011
L. Gurriel Jr.LF
.2494012001
P. SmithDH
.2543100002
G. MorenoC
.2754123101
A. Del CastilloDH
.2434010002
B. Alexander3B
.2254010000
A. ThomasCF
.2494100001
Team336861410

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. NelsonSP
6.04332688
J. BurgosRP
1.00000114
K. BackhusRP
0.1211009
J. MorilloRP
0.2000005
A. SaalfrankRP
1.0000006
J. CurtissRP
1.0010008
J. BeeksRP
1.0000009
Team11.065427139

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • B. Suter
    45 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      38%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·76.4 mph·44% whiff
    • SI
      18%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·80.0 mph·100% whiff

ARI

  • J. Beeks
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      56%·94.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.1 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

5

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Aug 23CINCIN5@ARIARI6today
Aug 24CINCIN1@ARIARI10
Aug 24CINCIN6@ARIARI1

Season series

CIN leads series 3-1

Jun 6ARIARI3@CINCIN4
Jun 7ARIARI1@CINCIN13
Jun 8ARIARI2@CINCIN4
Aug 23CINCIN5@ARIARI6today
Aug 24CINCIN1@ARIARI10
Aug 24CINCIN6@ARIARI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 32pp · Top 11th Inning

CINCIN
M. Andujar

M. Andujar

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Nelson

R. Nelson

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat CIN 6-5. De La Cruz's play in the top 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Win probability

ARI vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARIBottom 3rd Inning · 2-4
+27pp→ 78% WP

Moreno · homered to left (403 feet), Carroll scored and Smith scored.

ARIBottom 10th Inning · 5-4
+26pp→ 55% WP

Perdomo · hit sacrifice bunt to third, Thomas to third.

ARITop 11th Inning · 5-5
+32pp→ 83% WP

De La Cruz · lined into double play, shortstop to third, Friedl doubled off third.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
CIN020001010105
ARI103000000116

Period scoring

CIN won 3 · ARI won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Jr. 1

2
0

Inn 2

Hayes 1

0
3

Inn 3

Moreno 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Hays 1

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 9

1
1

Inn 10

Hayes 1

Marte 1

0
1

Inn 11

Jr. 1

CIN
ARI

Play-by-play · 604 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    ·

    CIN 5·ARI 6

  2. B11

    Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Carroll scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 6

    +17pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 6

  4. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  5. B11

    Scott Barlow pitches to Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

    ·

    CIN 5·ARI 6

  6. B11

    Barlow relieved Ashcraft

    ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  7. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  8. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  9. T11

    ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  10. T11

    De La Cruz lined into double play, shortstop to third, Friedl doubled off third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

    +32pp

  11. T11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  12. T11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  13. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  14. T11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  15. T11

    Jalen Beeks pitches to Elly De La Cruz

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  16. T11

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  17. T11

    Andujar grounded out to first, Friedl to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

    −17pp

  18. T11

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  19. T11

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  20. T11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  21. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  22. T11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  23. T11

    Jalen Beeks pitches to Miguel Andujar

    ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  24. T11

    Beeks relieved Curtiss

    ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  25. T11

    Top of the 11th inning

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  26. End 10

    End of the 10th inning

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  27. B10

    ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  28. B10

    Carroll grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Marte out at second.

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  29. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

  30. B10

    Graham Ashcraft pitches to Corbin Carroll

    · ·

    CIN 5·ARI 5

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

5

Runs

6

6

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

10

TB

12

0

HR

1

2

BB

4

7

K

10

12

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ARI vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Michael SorokaARI
    5.2± 2.7low
  • Eduardo RodriguezARI
    4.5± 1.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.5high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Jordan LawlarARI
    1.7± 1.8low

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.7± 1.0high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.6± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.4± 3.5low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    47.5%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.0%

    P(ARI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.2%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.