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  • MLBEnd 1
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    -5.8ppmedium
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    +38.1pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHW
TB

TB

72-73

5
6
CHW

CHW

56-90

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
12,099 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

TB 5 · CHW 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB1000310005
CHW051000006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Sep 10·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Chicago White Sox held off Tampa Bay Rays, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Richie Palacios

Richie Palacios

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Mike Tauchman

Mike Tauchman

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB72-73
5
6
CHW56-90
TB72-73·CHW56-90
TB

TB

72-73

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-44000000
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-44221111
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-55000004
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-44122101
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-44000003
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-33010010
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-11110020
SPRINT26.838
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
0-11000011
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-33111102
C. MorelC. Morel1B
0-11000000
H. FeducciaH. FeducciaC
1-11011010
SPRINT27.354
Team8-31315853712
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. JaxG. Jax★RP
1.0100110
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.2555110
K. KellyK. KellyRP
1.1111031
J. RockJ. RockSP
2.2100220
B. BakerB. BakerRP
0.1000000
C. SulserC. SulserRP
2.0000040
Team8.08664111
CHW

CHW

56-90

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
2-33122000
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-22110020
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44012000
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
0-33000012
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-33000013
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
1-44110002
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44111101
SPRINT26.632
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44110001
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
1-44111002
Team8-31316861411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BurkeS. Burke★SP
4.1533452
B. EisertB. EisertRP
1.0122121
M. VasilM. VasilRP
0.2100010
J. LeasureJ. LeasureRP
1.0000010
F. EllardF. EllardRP
1.0100010
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
0.2000110
T. GilbertT. GilbertRP
0.1000010
Team9.08557123

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • J. Rock
    52 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      46%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sulser
    33 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      48%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      39%·93.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    32 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      72%·98.5 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      28%·90.4 mph·25% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    15 pitches·53% CSW
    • SI
      73%·91.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      7%·79.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Jax
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      33%·97.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      25%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Baker
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      100%·87.7 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    68 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      24%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      1%·96.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Eisert
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      48%·85.0 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      33%·90.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      19%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Vasil
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      38%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·81.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      15%·81.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      15%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Leasure
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      40%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Ellard
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.8 mph·50% whiff
  • W. González
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      80%·95.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.9 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      10%·77.5 mph·— whiff
  • G. Taylor
    7 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      57%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      67%·81.8 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      33%·91.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Sep 9TBTB5@CHWCHW4
Sep 10TBTB5@CHWCHW6today
Sep 11TBTB1@CHWCHW5

Season series

CHW lead series 3-2

Jul 21CHWCHW8@TBTB3
Jul 22CHWCHW3@TBTB4
Jul 23CHWCHW11@TBTB9
Sep 9TBTB5@CHWCHW4
Sep 10TBTB5@CHWCHW6today
Sep 11TBTB1@CHWCHW5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 9th Inning

TBTB
R. Palacios

R. Palacios

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Sulser

C. Sulser

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER

CHWCHW
M. Tauchman

M. Tauchman

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CHW beat TB 6-5. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 9th inning (22pp).

Win probability

CHW vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 2nd Inning · 1-3
+20pp→ 70% WP

Tauchman · doubled to center, M. Taylor scored and Meidroth scored.

TBTop 6th Inning · 5-6
+14pp→ 38% WP

Feduccia · singled to center, Palacios scored.

CHWTop 9th Inning · 5-6
+22pp→ 78% WP

Díaz struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB1000310005
CHW05100000—6

Period scoring

TB won 3 · CHW won 2

1
0

Inn 1

0
5

Inn 2

Tauchman 2

0
1

Inn 3

Benintendi 1

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Caminero 2

1
0

Inn 6

Feduccia 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TB
CHW

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  2. T9

    B. Lowe struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

    +22pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  9. T9

    Tyler Gilbert pitches to Brandon Lowe

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  10. T9

    Gilbert relieved González

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  11. T9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  12. T9

    Díaz struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

    +23pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  18. T9

    Wikelman Gonzalez pitches to Yandy Diaz

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  19. T9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  20. T9

    Simpson hit sacrifice bunt to third, Gray to second, Feduccia to third.

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

    +1pp

  21. T9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  22. T9

    Wikelman Gonzalez pitches to Chandler Simpson

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  23. T9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  24. T9

    Gray walked, Feduccia to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

    −18pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

  30. T9

    Wikelman Gonzalez pitches to Tristan Gray

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 6

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

5

Runs

6

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

18

TB

15

3

HR

1

7

BB

4

12

K

11

17

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 96
    305
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 96
    257
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 94
    55
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 94
    78
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    118
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 94
    183
    15(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHW vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    46.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.7%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.