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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4SD
SD

SD

84-71

7
3
CHW

CHW

58-97

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
27,345 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 7 · CHW 3 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0100040117
CHW1010000013

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 24, 25sim 97
    78
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 96
    296
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 26, 25sim 96
    79
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    305
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    186
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    186
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Sep 20·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 7–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill

CF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Lenyn Sosa

Lenyn Sosa

2B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD84-71
7
3
CHW58-97
SD84-71·CHW58-97
SD

SD

84-71

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-55210001
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-55011000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
1-55111002
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
2-44321110
SPRINT28.688
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
0-44000001
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-33111011
SPRINT26.735
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
3-44033001
SPRINT26.735
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
0-33000013
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
2-44020000
Team11-37377117139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. DarvishY. Darvish★SP
4.2622040
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.1100100
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0000020
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000120
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0111001
Team9.0833281
CHW

CHW

58-97

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44110002
SPRINT2744
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-33011012
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT26.326
M. VargasM. Vargas★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.381
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
1-44010000
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-44000000
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
1-44111101
SPRINT26.941
W. RobertsonW. Robertson★LF
1-44010001
M. TaylorM. Taylor★RF
0-22000002
Team8-3232383128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. GomezY. Gomez★RP
5.1633041
F. EllardF. EllardRP
0.1122310
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.1000010
C. BooserC. BooserRP
1.0211020
W. GonzálezW. GonzálezRP
1.0211010
Team9.01177391

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • Y. Darvish
    78 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·93.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      19%·84.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·69.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      9%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      3%·76.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      79%·98.2 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      21%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      53%·98.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      27%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morejon
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      77%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·86.2 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.7 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Miller
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • FF
      54%·101.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      46%·87.5 mph·100% whiff

CHW

  • Y. Gomez
    74 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.9 mph·6% whiff
    • SI
      23%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.2 mph·50% whiff
  • F. Ellard
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      54%·94.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      23%·93.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      23%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Booser
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      57%·79.4 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·84.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Wilson
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.9 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      47%·82.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
  • W. González
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      59%·94.6 mph·14% whiff
    • SV
      29%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

7

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Sep 19SDSD3@CHWCHW4
Sep 20SDSD7@CHWCHW3today
Sep 21SDSD3@CHWCHW2

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 19SDSD3@CHWCHW4
Sep 20SDSD7@CHWCHW3today
Sep 21SDSD3@CHWCHW2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 32pp · Top 6th Inning

SDSD
J. Merrill

J. Merrill

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

Y. Darvish

Y. Darvish

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 6 H

CHWCHW
L. Sosa

L. Sosa

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

Y. Gomez

Y. Gomez

RP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

SD beat CHW 7-3. O'Hearn's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHWBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+13pp→ 67% WP

Teel · doubled to right, Meidroth scored.

SDTop 6th Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 55% WP

Machado · singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.

SDTop 6th Inning · 5-2
+32pp→ 88% WP

O'Hearn · doubled to left, Machado scored, Sheets scored and Merrill scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0100040117
CHW1010000013

Period scoring

SD won 3 · CHW won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Vargas 1

1
0

Inn 2

Merrill 1

0
1

Inn 3

Teel 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

4
0

Inn 6

O'Hearn 3

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Sheets 1

1
1

Inn 9

Arraez 1

Sosa 1

SD
CHW

Play-by-play · 577 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 7·CHW 3

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  3. B9

    Robertson lined out to right.

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  11. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Will Robertson

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  12. B9

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  13. B9

    Sosa homered to left center (407 feet).

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  19. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Lenyn Sosa

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 3

  20. B9

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  21. B9

    Quero flied out to center.

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  25. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Edgar Quero

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  26. B9

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  27. B9

    Tauchman flied out to left.

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

    −0.5pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·CHW 2

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

7

Runs

3

11

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

16

TB

13

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

9

K

8

16

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHW vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    4.9± 2.9low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Sam AntonacciCHW
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Drew RomoCHW
    0.6± 0.8medium

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    45.6%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.9%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.7%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.