MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ARI

CLE

64-61

ARI

61-66

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

19,723 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
48.8%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.4%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.1low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 3.5low

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.6± 1.3high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.3± 1.2high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
3.0± 2.2high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.3high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.4high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.8± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.5low
Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Zac GallenARI
2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

CLE 5 · ARI 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	5
ARI	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
S. Kwan★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Martinez★LF	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.765
J. Ramirez★3B	1-3	3	2	1	2	1	2	1
SPRINT27.251
D. Fry★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Santana★1B	1-5	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
G. Arias★SS	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.530
N. Jones★RF	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
B. Rocchio★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. Hedges★C	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	8-35	35	5	8	5	1	6	5

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-4

2-5

1-3

0-2

1-5

1-4

2-4

0-3

1-3

0-2

Team

8-35

	Pitching
T. Bibee★SP	5.2	7	4	4	1	5	1
E. SabrowskiRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HerrinRP	0.2	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. EnrightRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. JunisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	8.0	9	6	6	2	6	1

Pitching

Player

5.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
G. Perdomo★SS	2-3	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
SPRINT26.838
K. Marte★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. Carroll★RF	2-4	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
SPRINT29.496
L. Gurriel Jr.★LF	1-4	4	0	1	3	0	0	0
SPRINT25.818
P. Smith★1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. McCarthy★LF	2-4	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
SPRINT29.698
A. Thomas★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.867
J. Herrera★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	9-32	32	6	9	6	1	2	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI