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  • MLBEnd 1
    ARI 0@SEA 0
    -5.8ppmedium
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    -6.0ppmedium
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    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +42.8ppmedium
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    +58.9pplow
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    -55.7pppeak
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    +38.1pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TB
TB

TB

72-72

5
4
CHW

CHW

55-90

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 5 · CHW 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0301001005
CHW1000120004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 9·Final/SeriesCHW win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Richie Palacios

Richie Palacios

2B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Kyle Teel

Kyle Teel

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB72-72
5
4
CHW55-90
TB72-72·CHW55-90
TB

TB

72-72

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44011000
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-44000002
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000002
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44112102
SPRINT27.251
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44010001
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
1-22111100
SPRINT26.838
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-33211111
SPRINT26.428
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
1-22010000
C. MorelC. Morel1B
0-11000001
C. WilliamsC. WilliamsSS
0-11000001
N. FortesN. FortesC
0-11000000
Team7-34345753111
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
5.1433091
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.1211010
K. KellyK. KellyRP
0.1000000
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000010
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0100020
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000000
Team9.07440131
CHW

CHW

55-90

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanM. Tauchman★RF
0-44000002
K. TeelK. Teel★C
1-44111102
L. SosaL. Sosa★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.941
C. MontgomeryC. Montgomery★SS
1-44111002
SPRINT26.326
E. QueroE. Quero★C
0-44000002
A. BenintendiA. Benintendi★DH
1-44011002
SPRINT26.632
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
0-44000000
B. BaldwinB. Baldwin★LF
1-44110002
C. MeidrothC. Meidroth★2B
1-44011000
Team7-36364741013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. GomezY. Gomez★RP
5.0544152
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
1.1111021
S. WilsonS. WilsonRP
1.0000000
F. EllardF. EllardRP
1.0100020
D. AltavillaD. AltavillaRP
0.2000020
Team9.07551113

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • A. Houser
    83 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      42%·95.0 mph·5% whiff
    • SL
      22%·88.6 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      16%·95.8 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      6%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      35%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Baker
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      69%·96.6 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      31%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    11 pitches·64% CSW
    • CH
      55%·87.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      45%·93.9 mph·67% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      75%·98.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      25%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Kelly
    3 pitches·67% CSW
    • ST
      67%·76.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·90.1 mph·— whiff

CHW

  • Y. Gomez
    90 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      38%·93.2 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·89.4 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      33%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      28%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      11%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·87.1 mph·— whiff
  • F. Ellard
    17 pitches·47% CSW
    • FF
      35%·95.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      35%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.3 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Altavilla
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      33%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      11%·99.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

5

Runs

4

2

Errors

0

Current series

CHW win series 2-1

Sep 9TBTB5@CHWCHW4today
Sep 10TBTB5@CHWCHW6
Sep 11TBTB1@CHWCHW5

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Jul 21CHWCHW8@TBTB3
Jul 22CHWCHW3@TBTB4
Jul 23CHWCHW11@TBTB9
Sep 9TBTB5@CHWCHW4today
Sep 10TBTB5@CHWCHW6
Sep 11TBTB1@CHWCHW5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 7th Inning

TBTB
R. Palacios

R. Palacios

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 4 H

CHWCHW
K. Teel

K. Teel

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

Y. Gomez

Y. Gomez

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat CHW 5-4. Gray's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 2nd Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 68% WP

J. Lowe · homered to right (396 feet), Caminero scored.

CHWBottom 6th Inning · 4-4
+16pp→ 49% WP

Benintendi · singled to center, Montgomery scored.

TBTop 7th Inning · 5-4
+21pp→ 71% WP

Gray · homered to right (397 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0301001005
CHW1000120004

Period scoring

TB won 3 · CHW won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Teel 1

3
0

Inn 2

Lowe 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Palacios 1

0
1

Inn 5

Meidroth 1

0
2

Inn 6

Montgomery 1

1
0

Inn 7

Gray 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TB
CHW

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 5·CHW 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  3. B9

    Meidroth lined out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

    −8pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  8. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Chase Meidroth

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  9. B9

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  10. B9

    Baldwin safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Gray.

    · ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

    +5pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  14. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Brooks Baldwin

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  15. B9

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  16. B9

    Mead flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

    −6pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  20. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Curtis Mead

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  21. B9

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  22. B9

    Benintendi flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

    −8pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

  30. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Andrew Benintendi

    ·

    TB 5·CHW 4

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

5

Runs

4

7

Hits

7

2

Errors

0

17

TB

13

3

HR

1

1

BB

0

11

K

13

4

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

CHW vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.9± 2.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Sean BurkeCHW
    2.3± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    48.1%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.8%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.8%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 11, 25sim 97
    301
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 96
    305
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    301
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 94
    113
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    118
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 94
    14
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs