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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ATH
ATH

ATH

59-70

8
3
MIN

MIN

58-69

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
21,837 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 8 · MIN 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0600011008
MIN0002000013

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Aug 21·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 8–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Tyler Soderstrom

Tyler Soderstrom

LF

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Austin Martin

Austin Martin

LF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH59-70
8
3
MIN58-69
ATH59-70·MIN58-69
ATH

ATH

59-70

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-44221111
SPRINT26.632
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-55113001
SPRINT26.530
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-55111000
SPRINT27.148
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
4-44140010
SPRINT26.735
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
1-55011000
SPRINT27.969
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-55011001
W. MacIverW. MacIver★C
0-33200010
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
1-44110001
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
1-55011002
Team12-40408128136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. PerkinsJ. Perkins★RP
5.0322420
B. BowdenB. BowdenRP
1.0000020
O. BidoO. BidoRP
3.0211040
Team9.0533480
MIN

MIN

58-69

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000000
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
0-22100021
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-33100010
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT27.457
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
1-44011001
SPRINT27.251
J. OutmanJ. Outman★CF
1-44011003
SPRINT27.251
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
1-33011012
SPRINT27.867
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
0-33000000
Team5-3131353048
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. UrenaJ. Urena★RP
5.0766230
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
1.2322121
E. RamirezE. RamirezRP
1.1200000
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
1.0000010
Team9.01288361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Perkins
    90 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.5 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      29%·86.5 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Bido
    44 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.4 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Bowden
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.4 mph·50% whiff

MIN

  • J. Urena
    96 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      34%·95.7 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.5 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      25%·89.2 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      69%·92.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      16%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      3%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Ramirez
    25 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      36%·91.2 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      32%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·82.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      12%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Kriske
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      30%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      30%·83.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

5

8

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Aug 19ATHATH6@MINMIN3
Aug 20ATHATH4@MINMIN2
Aug 21ATHATH8@MINMIN3today

Season series

ATH wins series 4-3

Jun 3MINMIN10@ATHATH4
Jun 4MINMIN10@ATHATH3
Jun 5MINMIN6@ATHATH1
Jun 5MINMIN3@ATHATH14
Aug 19ATHATH6@MINMIN3
Aug 20ATHATH4@MINMIN2
Aug 21ATHATH8@MINMIN3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 2nd Inning

ATHATH
T. Soderstrom

T. Soderstrom

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Perkins

J. Perkins

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

MINMIN
A. Martin

A. Martin

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

J. Urena

J. Urena

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat MIN 8-3. Butler's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+27pp→ 72% WP

Butler · doubled to left, Kurtz scored, MacIver scored and B. Harris scored.

ATHTop 2nd Inning · 5-0
+6pp→ 86% WP

Hernaiz · singled to center, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to second.

ATHTop 6th Inning · 7-2
+9pp→ 95% WP

Kurtz · homered to center (425 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0600011008
MIN0002000013

Period scoring

ATH won 3 · MIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

6
0

Inn 2

Butler 3

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Outman 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Kurtz 1

1
0

Inn 7

Schuemann 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Lewis 1

ATH
MIN

Play-by-play · 605 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  3. B9

    Gasper flied out to right.

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  13. B9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Mickey Gasper

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  14. B9

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  15. B9

    Martin struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  23. B9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Austin Martin

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  24. B9

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  25. B9

    Outman struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

    −1pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    ATH 8·MIN 3

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

8

Runs

3

12

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

18

TB

7

1

HR

0

3

BB

4

6

K

8

15

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

MIN vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    49.1%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.6%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.4%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 97
    55
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 96
    269
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    307
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 9, 25sim 94
    305
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 10, 25sim 94
    305
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    301
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs