MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CHW

72-74

CHW

57-90

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

11,850 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.3%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
48.2%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.6%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
Sean BurkeCHW
5.2± 2.8low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.4high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.1± 1.4high

Total bases

Yandy DiazTB
2.1± 1.7high
Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 3.0high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Miguel VargasCHW
0.8± 1.4high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high
Yandy DiazTB
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Erick FeddeCHW
2.6± 3.1low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low
Anthony KayCHW
2.5± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CHW

.720

OPS

.715

▶

.742

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.329

4.50

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.79

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.25

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

TB 1 · CHW 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
CHW	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. SimpsonLF	.292	4	1	4	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.260	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Caminero3B	.261	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. LoweLF	.236	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MangumLF	.295	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Seymour1B	.205	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Gray3B	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WilliamsSS	.196	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.145	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.225	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		33	1	7	1	0	2	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.292

.260

.261

.236

.295

.205

.222

.196

.145

.225

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
I. SeymourRP	5.1	4	3	2	2	5	90
E. OrzeRP	0.2	2	2	2	2	1	28
J. GerberRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	33
Team	8.0	6	5	4	4	8	151

Player

I. SeymourRP

5.1

E. OrzeRP

0.2

J. GerberRP

2.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. Meidroth2B	.266	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
C. Mead1B	.262	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. QueroC	.279	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.228	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
M. Vargas3B	.233	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. TaylorRF	.201	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. BaldwinLF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
K. LeeC	.257	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
W. RobertsonLF	.129	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TeelC	.290	2	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		30	5	6	5	0	4	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. SmithSP	5.2	4	0	0	1	4	98
T. GilbertRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
B. EisertRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	21
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	27
J. LeasureRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	6	163

Team

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.