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  • MLBBot 1
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    +58.9pplow
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FINAL+6SF
TB

TB

61-64

1
7
SF

SF

60-64

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
38,876 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

TB 1 · SF 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TB +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0000000101
SF000004217

What's next

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MLB·Sun, Aug 17·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Tampa Bay Rays, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Ha-Seong Kim

Ha-Seong Kim

SS

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Drew Gilbert

Drew Gilbert

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB61-64
1
7
SF60-64
TB61-64·SF60-64
TB

TB

61-64

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-44000000
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
0-44000001
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000004
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2993
H. KimH. Kim★SS
2-44020002
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-22100010
SPRINT27.354
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
0-33000000
BB. Seymour★1B
1-33010001
Team5-3232151019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. PepiotR. Pepiot★SP
5.2644280
M. EnglertM. EnglertRP
2.0533022
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
0.1000010
Team8.011772112
SF

SF

60-64

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-44010001
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-33110010
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44120001
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33100012
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44112002
SPRINT25.716
C. KossC. Koss★2B
2-44021000
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-44110002
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
2-44122101
SPRINT26.428
T. FitzgeraldT. Fitzgerald★2B
1-44111102
Team11-343471162211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
7.0300070
T. BeckT. BeckRP
1.0211100
K. WinnK. WinnRP
1.0000020
Team9.0511190

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • R. Pepiot
    93 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.5 mph·41% whiff
    • CH
      28%·87.7 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.2 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.6 mph·— whiff
  • M. Englert
    38 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      26%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      24%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      18%·88.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      16%·76.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • FF
      75%·97.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      25%·91.2 mph·100% whiff

SF

  • L. Webb
    86 pitches·37% CSW
    • SI
      37%·92.1 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      35%·86.7 mph·32% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.0 mph·67% whiff
  • T. Beck
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      24%·91.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      24%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Winn
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FS
      38%·90.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      38%·95.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      23%·97.0 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

11

1

Runs

7

0

Errors

2

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 16TBTB7@SFSF6
Aug 17TBTB2@SFSF1
Aug 17TBTB1@SFSF7today

Season series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 16TBTB7@SFSF6
Aug 17TBTB2@SFSF1
Aug 17TBTB1@SFSF7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 6th Inning

TBTB
H. Kim

H. Kim

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

R. Pepiot

R. Pepiot

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

SFSF
D. Gilbert

D. Gilbert

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

SF beat TB 7-1. Smith's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 65% WP

Lee · doubled to right.

SFBottom 5th Inning · 0-0
+14pp→ 62% WP

Koss · singled to center.

SFBottom 6th Inning · 0-3
+31pp→ 91% WP

Smith · singled to right, Devers scored, Ramos scored and Adames scored, Smith to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0000000101
SF00000421—7

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

SF

Home

1

Runs

7

5

Hits

11

0

Errors

2

5

TB

19

0

HR

2

1

BB

2

9

K

11

10

LOB

9

Win probability

SF vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

TB won 0 · SF won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
4

Inn 6

Smith 3

0
2

Inn 7

Gilbert 1

1
1

Inn 8

Gilbert 1

0

Inn 9

TB
SF

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  2. T9

    Kim struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  9. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Ha-Seong Kim

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  10. T9

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  11. T9

    Mangum grounded out to second.

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  14. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Jake Mangum

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  15. T9

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  16. T9

    Caminero struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  22. T9

    Keaton Winn pitches to Junior Caminero

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  23. T9

    Winn relieved Beck

    ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TB 1·SF 7

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TB 1·SF 7

  26. B8

    · ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  27. B8

    Fitzgerald struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  28. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    TB 1·SF 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 1·SF 7

Player projections

SF vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.2± 1.6low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    47.7%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.5%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.3%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 9, 25sim 95
    305
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 11, 25sim 94
    301
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 15, 25sim 94
    14
    4(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    118
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    218
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 93
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
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