HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +8.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 3@CIN 2
    -51.2pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3BAL
BAL

BAL

70-80

4
1
CHW

CHW

57-94

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois
11,020 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

BAL

league avg

CHW

CHW

.727

OPS

.715

▶

.742

.324

OBP

.319

▶

.329

4.76

Runs / G

4.50

4.79

4.53

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.25

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 4 · CHW 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0010030004
CHW1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Sep 15·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Chicago White Sox and beat them, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. BasalloBAL+49.1pp
  2. 2T. AlexanderCHW−41.4pp
  3. 3C. MayoBAL+36.7pp

BAL · top performer

BAL
Colton Cowser

Colton Cowser

RF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

CHW · top performer

CHW
Dominic Fletcher

Dominic Fletcher

RF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. Holliday2B
.2554020010
J. Jackson2B
.2844011011
G. HendersonSS
.2694000011
T. O'NeillRF
.2084010000
R. Mountcastle1B
.2564010001
D. BeaversRF
.2674000001
C. Mayo3B
.1921100021
S. BasalloC
.1853210010
C. CowserRF
.2024113103
- E. Rivera3B
.2500000000
Team32474168

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
K. BradishSP
5.04114988
K. StrowdRP
1.00000216
D. EnnsRP
3.00000432
Team9.0411415136

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TauchmanRF
.2622100021
K. TeelC
.2794000003
L. Sosa2B
.2604000004
C. MontgomerySS
.2223010012
C. Mead1B
.2644011002
A. BenintendiDH
.2402000011
E. QueroC
.2793000001
C. Meidroth2B
.2673010000
D. FletcherRF
.2312010000
- M. Vargas3B
.2311000000
- M. TaylorRF
.2061000001
Team291410415

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. GilbertRP
1.00000110
S. BurkeSP
4.02114489
S. WilsonRP
0.20111116
T. AlexanderRP
0.13220023
M. VasilRP
3.02001249
Team9.074468187

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    88 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      33%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      31%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      13%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Enns
    32 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      63%·94.3 mph·54% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·86.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·76.8 mph·100% whiff
  • K. Strowd
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      38%·90.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      6%·83.4 mph·0% whiff

CHW

  • S. Burke
    89 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      47%·95.4 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      33%·82.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.7 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Vasil
    49 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      43%·94.5 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.4 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      18%·81.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      6%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Alexander
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      26%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·91.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      26%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.5 mph·33% whiff
  • S. Wilson
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      31%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • T. Gilbert
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      60%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.7 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

4

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 3-0

Sep 15BALBAL4@CHWCHW1today
Sep 16BALBAL8@CHWCHW7
Sep 17BALBAL3@CHWCHW1

Season series

BAL leads series 4-0

May 30CHWCHW1@BALBAL2
May 31CHWCHW2@BALBAL4
Jun 1CHWCHW2@BALBAL3
Sep 15BALBAL4@CHWCHW1today
Sep 16BALBAL8@CHWCHW7
Sep 17BALBAL3@CHWCHW1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ CHW

Biggest swing: 37pp · Top 6th Inning

BALBAL
C. Cowser

C. Cowser

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

CHWCHW
D. Fletcher

D. Fletcher

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

S. Burke

S. Burke

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

BAL beat CHW 4-1. Cowser's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (37pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHW vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 3rd Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 55% WP

J. Jackson · singled to center, Basallo scored, J. Jackson to second, Holliday to third.

CHWBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+16pp→ 64% WP

Fletcher · doubled to right.

BALTop 6th Inning · 4-1
+37pp→ 86% WP

Cowser · homered to left center (371 feet), Mayo scored and Basallo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0010030004
CHW1000000001

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · CHW won 1

0
1

Inn 1

Mead 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Jackson 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

3
0

Inn 6

Cowser 3

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
CHW

Play-by-play · 585 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  2. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  3. B9

    Vargas popped out to second.

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  8. B9

    Dietrich Enns pitches to Miguel Vargas

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  9. B9

    Vargas hit for Benintendi

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  10. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  11. B9

    Mead flied out to right.

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

    −1pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  13. B9

    Dietrich Enns pitches to Curtis Mead

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  14. B9

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  15. B9

    Montgomery struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

    −2pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  19. B9

    Dietrich Enns pitches to Colson Montgomery

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  20. B9

    Rivera at third base.

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  21. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  22. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  23. T9

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  24. T9

    Henderson grounded out to second.

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  25. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 4·CHW 1

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

CHW

Home

4

Runs

1

7

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

11

TB

5

1

HR

0

6

BB

4

8

K

15

13

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 11 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Miguel VargasCHW · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CHW vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Davis MartinCHW
    6.3± 3.1low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.2± 3.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.2± 2.3low

Hits

  • Taylor WardBAL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Chase MeidrothCHW
    1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    2.0± 3.0high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Miguel VargasCHW
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.4low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Erick FeddeCHW
    2.6± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.6%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    47.4%

    P(CHW win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.8%

    P(CHW win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.3%

    P(CHW win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.73 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.