HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -18.1pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA7:24 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 27
    +9.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAA
ATH

ATH

66-78

3
4
LAA

LAA

67-76

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
33,053 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

ATH

league avg

LAA

LAA

.735

OPS

◀

.715

.705

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.32

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.46

4.61

Team ERA

4.17

4.65

1.42

WHIP

1.31

1.43

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

ATH 3 · LAA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0010001103
LAA200100014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesLAA win series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Angels held off Athletics, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. TaylorLAA+46.4pp
  2. 2O. BidoATH−28.9pp
  3. 3T. d'ArnaudLAA+21.5pp

ATH · top performer

ATH
Tyler Soderstrom

Tyler Soderstrom

LF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
N. Kurtz1B
.3044110001
B. RookerDH
.2684010000
C. ThomasRF
.2273001000
T. SoderstromLF
.2763121110
J. WilsonSS
.3154000000
Z. Gelof3B
.1832000011
L. ButlerRF
.2354010002
B. Harris3B
.2332000000
W. MacIverC
.2003111100
- J. BledayLF
.2201000000
- C. CortesRF
.3131000000
- D. HernaizSS
.2480000000
Team31363224

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
L. SeverinoSP
5.04331789
T. FergusonRP
1.00000010
S. NewcombRP
1.01001017
O. BidoRP
0.11112022
M. KellyRP
0.2000017
Team8.064448145

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. TroutCF
.2294010012
Y. Moncada3B
.2422120000
T. WardLF
.2254000001
J. AdellRF
.2434112101
C. TaylorCF
.1761200011
O. Peraza2B
.2133000001
L. O'HoppeC
.2172000010
L. Davidson1B
.2502000000
B. TeodosioLF
.1933011001
- M. LugoLF
.2130000000
- T. d'ArnaudC
.2011011000
- Z. NetoSS
.2571000010
- L. Rengifo3B
.2441000001
Team28464148

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. FarrisRP
6.03221476
L. GarciaRP
1.01001014
R. DetmersSP
1.02110021
K. JansenRP
1.0000009
Team9.063324120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • L. Severino
    89 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      45%·95.9 mph·36% whiff
    • ST
      26%·81.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      4%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·85.1 mph·— whiff
  • O. Bido
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      41%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    17 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      24%·83.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Ferguson
    10 pitches·10% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      10%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.4 mph·— whiff
  • M. Kelly
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      71%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.7 mph·0% whiff

LAA

  • M. Farris
    76 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      49%·90.0 mph·26% whiff
    • SL
      26%·81.5 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      25%·77.0 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Detmers
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      19%·73.1 mph·33% whiff
  • L. Garcia
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      64%·96.9 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      29%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      67%·92.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      11%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

LAA win series 4-2

Jun 10ATHATH4@LAALAA7
Jun 11ATHATH1@LAALAA2
Jun 11ATHATH5@LAALAA6
Sep 6ATHATH10@LAALAA4
Sep 7ATHATH17@LAALAA4
Sep 7ATHATH3@LAALAA4today

Season series

LAA win series 9-4

May 20LAALAA4@ATHATH3
May 21LAALAA7@ATHATH5
May 22LAALAA10@ATHATH5
May 22LAALAA10@ATHATH5
Jun 10ATHATH4@LAALAA7
Jun 11ATHATH1@LAALAA2
Jun 11ATHATH5@LAALAA6
Aug 16LAALAA3@ATHATH10
Aug 17LAALAA2@ATHATH7
Aug 17LAALAA11@ATHATH5
Sep 6ATHATH10@LAALAA4
Sep 7ATHATH17@LAALAA4
Sep 7ATHATH3@LAALAA4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 25pp · Bottom 8th Inning

ATHATH
T. Soderstrom

T. Soderstrom

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

LAALAA
Y. Moncada

Y. Moncada

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Farris

M. Farris

RP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAA beat ATH 4-3. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 8th inning (25pp).

Win probability

LAA vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 68% WP

Adell · homered to center (415 feet), Moncada scored.

ATHTop 7th Inning · 2-3
+15pp→ 30% WP

Soderstrom · homered to left (389 feet).

LAABottom 8th Inning · 3-4
+25pp→ 92% WP

d'Arnaud hit a ground rule double, Taylor scored, Peraza to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0010001103
LAA20010001—4

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · LAA won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Adell 2

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

MacIver 1

0
1

Inn 4

Teodosio 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Soderstrom 1

1
1

Inn 8

Thomas 1

0

Inn 9

ATH
LAA

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  2. T9

    Butler fouled out to left.

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  7. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Lawrence Butler

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  8. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  9. T9

    Bleday flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

    +5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  13. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to JJ Bleday

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  14. T9

    Bleday hit for Gelof

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  15. T9

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  16. T9

    Wilson grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

    +3pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  19. T9

    Kenley Jansen pitches to Jacob Wilson

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  20. T9

    Jansen relieved Detmers

    ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  21. T9

    Rengifo at second base.

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  22. T9

    Taylor in center field.

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  23. T9

    Lugo in right field.

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  26. B8

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  27. B8

    Trout flied out to center.

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

  30. B8

    Michael Kelly pitches to Mike Trout

    · ·

    ATH 3·LAA 4

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

12

TB

12

2

HR

1

2

BB

4

4

K

8

8

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Oswald PerazaLAA · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

LAA vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    7.0± 4.0low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    5.8± 2.5low
  • J.T. GinnATH
    5.0± 2.9medium

Hits

  • Jacob WilsonATH
    1.2± 0.6high
  • Shea LangeliersATH
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Zack GelofATH
    1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

  • Shea LangeliersATH
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jose SiriLAA
    0.8± 1.5medium

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.2± 3.8low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    3.2± 2.4low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.6± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    48.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.6%

    P(LAA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.3%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.07 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.