MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAA

LAA

66-73

70-69

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

15,924 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.7%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
58.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.3%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.57 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.8± 2.5low
Noah CameronKC
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Jac CaglianoneKC
1.4± 1.3high
Michael MasseyKC
1.1± 1.1high
Vinnie PasquantinoKC
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.3± 2.8high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.9± 2.3medium

RBIs

Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.5medium
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.6medium
Trey ManciniLAA
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

.701

OPS

◀

.715

.692

.315

OBP

.319

.315

4.46

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.86

4.68

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.48

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.40

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 4 · KC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	4
KC	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.261	3	1	0	0	0	1	3
Y. Moncada3B	.228	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.227	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. AdellRF	.242	4	1	2	4	1	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.245	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. TaylorCF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.220	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. Peraza2B	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. TeodosioLF	.197	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	4	5	4	1	4	9

Player

AVG

RBI

.261

.228

.227

.242

.245

.200

.220

.229

.197

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
C. DanaSP	5.0	2	2	1	1	4	70
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
R. StephensonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	15
A. ChafinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	25
R. DetmersSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
Team	9.0	4	3	2	2	8	133

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

133

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. YastrzemskiLF	.250	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.295	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.256	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Garcia3B	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. PerezC	.239	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Frazier2B	.298	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Massey2B	.223	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.145	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
K. IsbelCF	.265	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. GrichukRF	.215	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.222	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. MaileC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.197	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		28	3	4	2	0	2	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. BergertSP	5.0	1	1	1	3	6	87
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	19
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
L. ErcegRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	28
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	5	4	4	4	9	153

Team

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.