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FINAL+4DET
NYM

NYM

75-65

2
6
DET

DET

81-60

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
21,775 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

NYM 2 · DET 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0010010002
DET010020306

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB·Wed, Sep 3·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off New York Mets, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM75-65
2
6
DET81-60
NYM75-65·DET81-60
NYM

NYM

75-65

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-33110020
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44110010
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
3-44031000
SPRINT25.29
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.278
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT25.513
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-22010020
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
0-44000001
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-44000002
H. SengerH. Senger★C
0-22000001
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
0-22000000
Team8-3333282054
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
4.2532360
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.1200010
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
0.2333121
J. HagenmanJ. HagenmanRP
1.1000000
Team8.01065491
DET

DET

81-60

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
2-33220010
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-33100010
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-33213112
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44012003
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
2-33020011
SPRINT26.123
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44010001
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
2-44120000
SPRINT26.941
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-33000001
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
1-44011001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
Team10-32326106149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MizeC. Mize★SP
5.0511030
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.1111100
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.1100200
W. VestW. VestRP
1.1100100
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.0000110
Team9.0822540

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    85 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      33%·93.7 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      29%·88.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      16%·82.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      6%·90.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      1%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      48%·89.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      44%·99.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      52%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.4 mph·60% whiff
    • ST
      14%·83.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      5%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Hagenman
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SL
      45%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·92.4 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • C. Mize
    69 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      33%·95.5 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      22%·88.7 mph·30% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SV
      16%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    27 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      81%·87.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      19%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Vest
    21 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      53%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Montero
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FS
      53%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Sep 1NYMNYM10@DETDET8
Sep 2NYMNYM12@DETDET5
Sep 3NYMNYM2@DETDET6today

Season series

NYM win series 2-1

Sep 1NYMNYM10@DETDET8
Sep 2NYMNYM12@DETDET5
Sep 3NYMNYM2@DETDET6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 6th Inning

NYMNYM
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Mize

C. Mize

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H

How it ended

DET beat NYM 6-2. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 6th inning (24pp).

Win probability

DET vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 66% WP

Rogers · singled to right, McKinstry scored, Báez to third.

DETBottom 5th Inning · 1-3
+23pp→ 81% WP

Greene · singled to center, Keith scored and Carpenter scored.

DETBottom 6th Inning · 2-3
+24pp→ 78% WP

Pérez singled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0010010002
DET01002030—6

Period scoring

NYM won 2 · DET won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Rogers 1

1
0

Inn 3

Alonso 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Greene 2

1
0

Inn 6

Vientos 1

0
3

Inn 7

Carpenter 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
DET

Play-by-play · 571 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  2. T9

    J. Soto flied out to left.

    · ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  6. T9

    Lindor to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  7. T9

    Lindor to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  9. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  10. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  11. T9

    Lindor walked.

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  18. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Francisco Lindor

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  19. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  20. T9

    Torrens lined out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  23. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Luis Torrens

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  24. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  25. T9

    Baty struck out looking.

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

    +0.7pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  29. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

  30. T9

    Montero relieved Vest

    ·

    NYM 2·DET 6

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

6

8

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

10

TB

14

0

HR

1

5

BB

4

4

K

9

15

LOB

15

Player projections

DET vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 66 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.5± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    54.4%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.4%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    182
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    183
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    65
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    135
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 95
    133
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    132
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
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