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FINAL+2DET
DET

DET

79-57

5
3
KC

KC

69-66

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
34,494 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 5 · KC 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0202000105
KC3000000003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 29·Final/SeriesDET wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Kerry Carpenter

Kerry Carpenter

RF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET79-57
5
3
KC69-66
DET79-57·KC69-66
DET

DET

79-57

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33110001
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
3-55130000
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
2-33122010
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
3-55032001
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-22000021
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000002
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
1-44111101
SPRINT27.765
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-33000011
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-44110002
J. JonesJ. JonesDH
0-22000002
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
Team11-363651151411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. PaddackC. Paddack★SP
3.2533002
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
1.0000210
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
1.2300010
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.2000130
W. VestW. VestRP
1.0100000
Team9.0933352
KC

KC

69-66

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
3-55131100
SPRINT2744
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44110010
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-33000011
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-33112110
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000000
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT26.225
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-44000002
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-44010002
SPRINT26.838
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-44010000
Team9-3535393235
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
3.1844450
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.2000020
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0100010
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
2.0111031
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0100000
Team9.011554111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Holton
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      33%·89.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.5 mph·— whiff

KC

  • A. Zerpa
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

9

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 4-2

May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3today
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0

Season series

DET leads series 8-3

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3today
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 22pp · Top 4th Inning

DETDET
K. Carpenter

K. Carpenter

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

C. Paddack

C. Paddack

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 ER · 5 H

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 4 BB

How it ended

DET beat KC 5-3. Greene's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+17pp→ 69% WP

Yastrzemski · homered to right center (432 feet).

DETTop 4th Inning · 4-3
+22pp→ 64% WP

Greene · doubled to right, Carpenter scored and Torres scored.

DETBottom 9th Inning · 5-3
+17pp→ 99% WP

Yastrzemski · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Isbel out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0202000105
KC3000000003

Period scoring

DET won 3 · KC won 1

0
3

Inn 1

Garcia 2

2
0

Inn 2

Carpenter 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Greene 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Dingler 1

0
0

Inn 9

DET
KC

Play-by-play · 595 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 5·KC 3

  2. B9

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  3. B9

    Witt Jr. flied out to right.

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  9. B9

    Will Vest pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  10. B9

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  11. B9

    Yastrzemski grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Isbel out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 3

    −17pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  16. B9

    Will Vest pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  17. B9

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  18. B9

    Isbel singled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

    +11pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  22. B9

    Will Vest pitches to Kyle Isbel

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  23. B9

    Vest relieved Finnegan

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  24. B9

    Báez in center field.

    DET 5·KC 3

  25. B9

    McKinstry at shortstop.

    DET 5·KC 3

  26. B9

    Pérez in right field.

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

  27. B9

    Ibáñez at third base.

    DET 5·KC 3

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    DET 5·KC 3

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    DET 5·KC 3

  30. T9

    ·

    DET 5·KC 3

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

KC

Home

5

Runs

3

11

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

15

TB

17

1

HR

2

4

BB

3

11

K

5

13

LOB

13

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 31, 25sim 97
    65
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 96
    180
    6(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    212
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 95
    185
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

KC vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.5± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.7%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    53.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.3%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.66 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.