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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TEX
HOU

HOU

77-65

3
4
TEX

TEX

73-69

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
31,662 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

HOU 3 · TEX 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789101112R
HOU0100000200003
TEX0120000000014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 97
    182
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    170
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    212
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 96
    291
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    132
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 95
    133
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    55.9%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.1%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.7%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Houston Astros, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa

SS

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Dustin Harris

Dustin Harris

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/12
HOU77-65
3
4
TEX73-69
HOU77-65·TEX73-69
HOU

HOU

77-65

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-55010003
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-44000011
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-55110000
SPRINT27.867
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
3-55132100
SPRINT27.251
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-44100011
SPRINT25.818
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-55010002
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
3-44031000
SPRINT24.22
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-44000002
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000002
M. DubonM. DubonSS
0-11000000
R. UriasR. Urias3B
0-11000000
Y. DiazY. DiazC
0-22000000
Team9-43433931211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
CC. Gordon★SP
4.1533221
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
2.2100230
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0100030
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0100010
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
0.2000110
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.1000020
Team11.09436121
TEX

TEX

73-69

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-33000000
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
1-66110001
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-44120020
SPRINT2872
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-55112103
SPRINT2744
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-44000010
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-55110002
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
3-55030001
SPRINT28.891
D. MooreD. Moore★CF
0-11001000
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-44000012
A. OsunaA. OsunaLF
0-22000011
D. HarrisD. HarrisLF
1-11011000
SPRINT28.688
J. HeimJ. HeimC
0-11000001
R. TellezR. Tellez1B
0-11000001
Team9-42424941612
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. KellyM. Kelly★SP
7.0511170
C. MartinC. MartinRP
1.0322011
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.2100130
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.1000000
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000000
Team12.09332111

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

9

3

Runs

4

2

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 4-3

May 16HOUHOU0@TEXTEX1
May 17HOUHOU6@TEXTEX3
May 17HOUHOU1@TEXTEX5
May 18HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
Sep 6HOUHOU3@TEXTEX4today
Sep 6HOUHOU11@TEXTEX0
Sep 7HOUHOU2@TEXTEX4

Season series

TEX leads series 5-3

May 16HOUHOU0@TEXTEX1
May 17HOUHOU6@TEXTEX3
May 17HOUHOU1@TEXTEX5
May 18HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
Jul 12TEXTEX7@HOUHOU3
Jul 12TEXTEX4@HOUHOU5
Jul 13TEXTEX5@HOUHOU1
Sep 6HOUHOU3@TEXTEX4today
Sep 6HOUHOU11@TEXTEX0
Sep 7HOUHOU2@TEXTEX4
Sep 16TEXTEX3@HOUHOU6
Sep 17TEXTEX5@HOUHOU6
Sep 18TEXTEX2@HOUHOU5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 30pp · Top 8th Inning

HOUHOU
C. Correa

C. Correa

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

C. Gordon

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
D. Harris

D. Harris

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

M. Kelly

M. Kelly

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat HOU 4-3. Correa's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (30pp).

Win probability

TEX vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11I12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 8th Inning · 3-3
+30pp→ 40% WP

Correa · homered to right (359 feet), Altuve scored.

HOUBottom 10th Inning · 3-3
+21pp→ 38% WP

Duran · struck out swinging.

TEXTop 12th Inning · 3-3
+24pp→ 74% WP

Urías flied out to shortstop.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789101112R
HOU0100000200003
TEX0120000000014

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · TEX won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Caratini 1

Moore 1

0
2

Inn 3

Burger 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Correa 2

0
0

Inn 9

0
0

Inn 10

0
0

Inn 11

0
1

Inn 12

Harris 1

HOU
TEX

Play-by-play · 711 plays

period
event
player
  1. B12

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 4

  2. B12

    Harris doubled to right, Freeman scored, Langford to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 4

    +18pp

  3. B12

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 4

  4. B12

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  5. B12

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  6. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  7. B12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  8. B12

    Lance McCullers Jr. pitches to Dustin Harris

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 4

  9. B12

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  10. B12

    Langford walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

    +8pp

  11. B12

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  12. B12

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  13. B12

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  14. B12

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  15. B12

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  16. B12

    Lance McCullers Jr. pitches to Wyatt Langford

    ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  17. B12

    McCullers Jr. relieved Okert

    ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  18. B12

    Urías at second base.

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  19. B12

    Dubón in center field.

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  20. B12

    Altuve in left field.

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  21. B12

    Bottom of the 12th inning

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  22. M12

    Middle of the 12th inning

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  23. T12

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  24. T12

    Diaz grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  25. T12

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  26. T12

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  27. T12

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  28. T12

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  29. T12

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

  30. T12

    Robert Garcia pitches to Yainer Diaz

    · ·

    HOU 3·TEX 3

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

3

Runs

4

9

Hits

9

2

Errors

1

13

TB

15

1

HR

1

2

BB

6

11

K

12

22

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Dustin HarrisHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872