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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2TEX
HOU

HOU

78-66

2
4
TEX

TEX

74-70

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
35,449 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

HOU 2 · TEX 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000011002
TEX010003004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 97
    183
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 97
    291
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 97
    212
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 95
    284
    13(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    170
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 28, 25sim 95
    74
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Houston Astros, 4–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Mauricio Dubon

Mauricio Dubon

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Jake Burger

Jake Burger

1B

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU78-66
2
4
TEX74-70
HOU78-66·TEX74-70
HOU

HOU

78-66

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-44011001
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-33000010
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000002
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-44000001
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-44110001
SPRINT25.920
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT27.867
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-33001000
SPRINT25.513
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000003
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
2-33120000
SPRINT26.428
Team5-3232252018
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
7.0543151
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0000100
Team8.0543251
TEX

TEX

74-70

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-33000012
SPRINT2872
C. FreemanC. Freeman★3B
1-44110000
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44111000
SPRINT25.920
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
2-33122100
SPRINT2744
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000000
D. MooreD. Moore★CF
1-33110000
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-33000001
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-33000001
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-22000001
Team5-2828453125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. CorbinP. Corbin★SP
5.2311150
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.1111020
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.2100000
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
1.1000010
Team9.0522180

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • F. Valdez
    97 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      40%·92.9 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      33%·78.2 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      23%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      70%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      20%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      5%·86.8 mph·— whiff

TEX

  • P. Corbin
    82 pitches·34% CSW
    • FC
      41%·88.3 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      26%·81.5 mph·56% whiff
    • CH
      22%·82.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • CU
      52%·75.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      43%·90.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      4%·89.1 mph·— whiff
  • S. Armstrong
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • FC
      38%·90.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.5 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      33%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

2

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

TEX wins series 4-3

May 16HOUHOU0@TEXTEX1
May 17HOUHOU6@TEXTEX3
May 17HOUHOU1@TEXTEX5
May 18HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
Sep 6HOUHOU3@TEXTEX4
Sep 6HOUHOU11@TEXTEX0
Sep 7HOUHOU2@TEXTEX4today

Season series

TEX leads series 6-4

May 16HOUHOU0@TEXTEX1
May 17HOUHOU6@TEXTEX3
May 17HOUHOU1@TEXTEX5
May 18HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
Jul 12TEXTEX7@HOUHOU3
Jul 12TEXTEX4@HOUHOU5
Jul 13TEXTEX5@HOUHOU1
Sep 6HOUHOU3@TEXTEX4
Sep 6HOUHOU11@TEXTEX0
Sep 7HOUHOU2@TEXTEX4today
Sep 16TEXTEX3@HOUHOU6
Sep 17TEXTEX5@HOUHOU6
Sep 18TEXTEX2@HOUHOU5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 19pp · Bottom 6th Inning

HOUHOU
M. Dubon

M. Dubon

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
J. Burger

J. Burger

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

P. Corbin

P. Corbin

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat HOU 4-2. Jung's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

TEX vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 62% WP

Heim · struck out swinging, Moore scored on error, Heim safe at first on throwing error by catcher Diaz.

HOUTop 6th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 56% WP

Peña singled to left, Dubón scored.

TEXBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+19pp→ 75% WP

Jung · doubled to center, Freeman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000011002
TEX01000300—4

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · TEX won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Heim 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
3

Inn 6

Burger 2

1
0

Inn 7

Diaz 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
TEX

Play-by-play · 477 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  2. T9

    Meyers grounded out to third.

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  4. T9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Jake Meyers

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  5. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  6. T9

    Walker grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

    +2pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  8. T9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Christian Walker

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  9. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  10. T9

    Correa popped out to second.

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

    +3pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  19. T9

    Shawn Armstrong pitches to Carlos Correa

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  20. T9

    Smith at shortstop.

    ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  23. B8

    · ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  24. B8

    Jung grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  27. B8

    Craig Kimbrel pitches to Josh Jung

    · ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  28. B8

    · ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

  29. B8

    Freeman popped out to shortstop.

    · ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

    −0.6pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 2·TEX 4

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

2

Runs

4

5

Hits

5

1

Errors

1

7

TB

9

0

HR

1

1

BB

2

8

K

5

11

LOB

6

Player projections

TEX vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    55.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.1%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.7%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872