HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBEnd 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBMid 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:51 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 81
    +27.6pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
LAA

LAA

62-72

0
2
HOU

HOU

75-60

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
33,841 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

LAA

league avg

HOU

HOU

.701

OPS

.715

▶

.733

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.321

4.46

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.56

4.68

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.91

1.44

WHIP

1.31

1.44

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

LAA 0 · HOU 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAA0000000000
HOU000000112

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 29·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Los Angeles Angels, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. AdellLAA−35.0pp
  2. 2C. JavierHOU+30.9pp
  3. 3Y. DiazHOU−23.2pp

LAA · top performer

LAA
Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada

3B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jesus Sanchez

Jesus Sanchez

RF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoSS
.2683000011
M. TroutCF
.2303000013
T. WardLF
.2313000010
Y. Moncada3B
.2303010010
J. AdellRF
.2354010001
L. O'HoppeC
.2224000000
C. Moore2B
.1954000003
N. Kavadas1B
.1183000012
B. TeodosioLF
.2152000001
- L. Rengifo3B
.2450000010
Team290200611

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. AndersonSP
5.05003186
R. StephensonRP
1.01001119
L. GarciaRP
1.02101126
R. ZeferjahnRP
1.01111014
Team8.092163145

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaSS
.3085020000
Y. AlvarezDH
.2063101010
J. Altuve2B
.2745020000
C. CorreaSS
.3203011010
C. Walker1B
.2404020001
J. SanchezRF
.2502010021
Y. DiazC
.2544000000
C. SmithRF
.2392100021
M. DubonSS
.2543010000
Team31292063

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. JavierSP
6.00003685
E. De Los SantosRP
1.02000111
C. KimbrelRP
0.20003225
K. OrtRP
1.10000221
Team9.0200611142

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAA

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

HOU

  • E. De Los Santos
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      50%·87.1 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • KC
      67%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·92.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

9

0

Runs

2

2

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 4-3

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2today
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8

Season series

HOU leads series 5-2

Apr 12LAALAA3@HOUHOU14
Apr 12LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Apr 13LAALAA3@HOUHOU7
Jun 21HOUHOU3@LAALAA2
Jun 22HOUHOU1@LAALAA9
Jun 22HOUHOU8@LAALAA7
Aug 30LAALAA0@HOUHOU2today
Aug 30LAALAA4@HOUHOU1
Aug 31LAALAA3@HOUHOU0
Sep 1LAALAA3@HOUHOU8
Sep 27HOUHOU3@LAALAA4
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA1
Sep 28HOUHOU6@LAALAA2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 7th Inning

LAALAA
Y. Moncada

Y. Moncada

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

T. Anderson

T. Anderson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

HOUHOU
J. Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

C. Javier

C. Javier

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 BB

How it ended

HOU beat LAA 2-0.

Win probability

HOU vs LAA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 4th Inning · 0-0
+16pp→ 38% WP

Diaz · grounded into double play, third to catcher, Sánchez to second, Walker out at third, Correa out at home.

LAATop 7th Inning · 0-0
+17pp→ 52% WP

Moncada · doubled to center.

HOUTop 8th Inning · 0-1
+16pp→ 91% WP

Adell · flied out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAA0000000000
HOU00000011—2

Period scoring

LAA won 0 · HOU won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Correa 1

0
1

Inn 8

Alvarez 1

0

Inn 9

LAA
HOU

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  2. T9

    Kavadas struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

    +0.7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  9. T9

    Kaleb Ort pitches to Niko Kavadas

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  10. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  11. T9

    Moore struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

    +2pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  18. T9

    Kaleb Ort pitches to Christian Moore

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  19. T9

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  20. T9

    O'Hoppe grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

    +3pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  25. T9

    Kaleb Ort pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  28. B8

    · ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

  29. B8

    Altuve flied out to right.

    · ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

    −0.9pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAA 0·HOU 2

Team stats

LAA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

0

Runs

2

2

Hits

9

2

Errors

0

3

TB

11

0

HR

0

6

BB

6

11

K

3

18

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

HOU vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    7.0± 4.0low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    5.8± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.3± 2.5low

Hits

  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.1± 1.4medium

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    1.9± 2.3medium
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jose SiriLAA
    0.8± 1.5medium
  • Wade MecklerLAA
    0.8± 1.6medium

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.2± 3.8low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.6± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    60.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.1%

    P(HOU win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.8%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.