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Live · 5
  • MLBBot 2
    PHI 1@LAD 0
    -13.2pphigh
  • MLBBot 3
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +53.5pplow
  • MLBMid 3
    ARI 0@SEA 2
    +32.3ppmedium
  • MLBEnd 5
    SF 0@COL 5
    +58.9pplow
  • NBA42.9 - 4th
    SA 109@OKC 103
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SD
SD

SD

75-58

7
6
SEA

SEA

71-62

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
35,910 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 7 · SEA 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD5000020007
SEA0000600006

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 20, 25sim 96
    186
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    229
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    256
    12(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    229
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 95
    212
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    26
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Tue, Aug 26·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Seattle Mariners and beat them, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Ramon Laureano

Ramon Laureano

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Eugenio Suarez

Eugenio Suarez

DH

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD75-58
7
6
SEA71-62
SD75-58·SEA71-62
SD

SD

75-58

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-55110000
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
0-55000000
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
2-55020002
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-44120011
SPRINT26.735
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
1-33111001
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
1-33210010
SPRINT26.735
R. LaureanoR. Laureano★LF
2-44224100
SPRINT2872
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
2-44021001
SPRINT28.891
F. FerminF. Fermin★C
1-22011011
Team12-35357127136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
4.1444351
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
0.2222001
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.0000030
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0100120
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
1.0100010
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0000000
Team9.08664112
SEA

SEA

71-62

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-55113102
SPRINT26.941
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-44100012
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44120010
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
2-44020001
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-33113110
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-44010000
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
0-44000003
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44110001
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33100012
Team8-35356862411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
5.0555361
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
0.1322000
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.2000000
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0100000
C. VargasC. VargasRP
2.0300000
Team9.01277361

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SEA

  • E. Bazardo
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • SI
      62%·97.0 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      38%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Speier
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.2 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.2 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

7

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 2-1

Aug 26SDSD6@SEASEA9
Aug 27SDSD7@SEASEA6today
Aug 27SDSD3@SEASEA4

Season series

SEA leads series 4-1

May 17SEASEA5@SDSD1
May 18SEASEA4@SDSD1
May 18SEASEA6@SDSD1
Aug 26SDSD6@SEASEA9
Aug 27SDSD7@SEASEA6today
Aug 27SDSD3@SEASEA4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 45pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SDSD
R. Laureano

R. Laureano

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
E. Suarez

E. Suarez

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SD beat SEA 7-6. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 5th inning (45pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SEA vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 1st Inning · 5-0
+30pp→ 84% WP

Laureano · homered to left center (391 feet), O'Hearn scored, Bogaerts scored and Sheets scored.

SEABottom 5th Inning · 5-6
+45pp→ 73% WP

Suárez homered to left (390 feet), Raleigh scored and Rodríguez scored.

SEABottom 8th Inning · 7-6
+16pp→ 35% WP

Polanco · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD5000020007
SEA0000600006

Period scoring

SD won 2 · SEA won 1

5
0

Inn 1

Laureano 4

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
6

Inn 5

Arozarena 3

2
0

Inn 6

Cronenworth 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
SEA

Play-by-play · 612 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 7·SEA 6

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  3. B9

    Rodríguez lined out to right.

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  9. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Julio Rodriguez

    · ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  10. B9

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  11. B9

    Raleigh flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

    −6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  15. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Cal Raleigh

    · ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  16. B9

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  17. B9

    Arozarena lined out to center.

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

    −5pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  24. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Randy Arozarena

    · ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  25. B9

    Suarez relieved Estrada

    · ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  26. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 7·SEA 6

  27. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SD 7·SEA 6

  28. T9

    ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  29. T9

    O'Hearn grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Machado out at second.

    · ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 7·SEA 6

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

7

Runs

6

12

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

19

TB

14

1

HR

2

3

BB

4

6

K

11

16

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

132

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    52.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.9%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.