MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8PHI

PHI

66-49

TEX

60-57

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

27,575 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
52.1%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.8%
P(TEX win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.7%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.8± 3.4low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.5± 3.6low
Jacob deGromTEX
6.3± 3.6low

Hits

Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 2.8high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.4high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

Ezequiel DuranTEX
0.9± 1.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.8± 1.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.0± 3.0low
Jack LeiterTEX
3.0± 2.4low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 9 · TEX 1 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	5	9
TEX	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
T. Turner★SS	2-4	4	1	2	5	1	2	0
SPRINT29.798
K. Schwarber★DH	1-5	5	1	1	1	1	1	1
SPRINT25.818
B. Harper★1B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J.T. Realmuto★C	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	1	1
SPRINT28.381
N. Castellanos★RF	0-5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. Marsh★LF	4-5	5	1	4	1	1	0	1
SPRINT28.175
M. Kepler★LF	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. Kemp★LF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
B. Stott★2B	1-3	3	2	1	2	0	2	2
SPRINT28.688
E. Sosa2B	1-1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team	11-37	37	9	11	9	3	9	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

2-4

1-5

0-4

2-4

0-5

4-5

0-4

0-2

1-3

1-1

Team

11-37

	Pitching
C. Sanchez★SP	6.0	6	1	1	1	6	0
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. KerkeringRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0
M. LazarRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Team	9.0	8	1	1	2	10	0

Pitching

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
S. Haggerty★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Seager★SS	2-5	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT24.96
M. Semien★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
SPRINT28.175
W. Langford★LF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Jung★3B	1-4	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
SPRINT25.920
A. Garcia★RF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.735
J. Burger★1B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Higashioka★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Duran★2B	2-4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT28.891
J. PedersonDH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Team	8-36	36	1	8	1	0	2	10

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI