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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1HOU
BOS

BOS

65-55

6
7
HOU

HOU

67-52

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
39,330 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

BOS 6 · HOU 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS2000004006
HOU003220007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 98
    210
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 97
    212
    10(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 96
    214
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 10, 25sim 95
    141
    19(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 94
    186
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 94
    257
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

HOU vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.7%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.5%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Mon, Aug 11·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Boston Red Sox, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Masataka Yoshida

Masataka Yoshida

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Ramon Urias

Ramon Urias

3B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS65-55
6
7
HOU67-52
BOS65-55·HOU67-52
BOS

BOS

65-55

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-55222102
SPRINT27.457
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
2-44122100
SPRINT25.818
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
1-33010011
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44000002
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000000
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-44010001
A. ToroA. Toro★1B
1-33111101
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-33110010
SPRINT28.790
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-22000001
R. RefsnyderR. RefsnyderDH
0-11000000
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
1-11011000
SPRINT26.123
C. WongC. WongC
1-11110000
Team10-35356106328
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
4.0755151
J. HicksJ. HicksRP
1.0122111
I. CampbellI. CampbellRP
1.0100000
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
2.0100010
Team8.01077272
HOU

HOU

67-52

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-44110000
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-44111002
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44010000
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-33112011
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-44000001
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
3-44232101
SPRINT26.735
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
0-33000001
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
1-33112100
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
2-22120010
SPRINT29.395
J. SanchezJ. SanchezRF
0-11000000
T. TrammellT. TrammellCF
0-11000001
Team10-33337107227
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. JavierC. Javier★SP
5.0322251
K. OrtK. OrtRP
1.0000020
H. NerisH. NerisRP
0.2333001
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.0311001
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0100000
B. SousaB. SousaRP
0.1000010
Team9.01066283

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

HOU

  • S. Okert
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      50%·80.2 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

10

6

Runs

7

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Aug 12BOSBOS6@HOUHOU7today
Aug 13BOSBOS14@HOUHOU1
Aug 13BOSBOS1@HOUHOU4

Season series

BOS leads series 3-1

Aug 1HOUHOU1@BOSBOS2
Aug 2HOUHOU3@BOSBOS7
Aug 3HOUHOU1@BOSBOS6
Aug 12BOSBOS6@HOUHOU7today
Aug 13BOSBOS14@HOUHOU1
Aug 13BOSBOS1@HOUHOU4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

BOSBOS
M. Yoshida

M. Yoshida

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
R. Urias

R. Urias

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Javier

C. Javier

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

HOU beat BOS 7-6. Walker's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

HOU vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+24pp→ 57% WP

Walker · doubled to center, Correa scored and Peña scored.

HOUBottom 4th Inning · 2-5
+18pp→ 83% WP

McCormick · homered to left center (393 feet), Urías scored.

BOSTop 7th Inning · 6-7
+13pp→ 20% WP

Anthony · homered to right center (398 feet), Wong scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS2000004006
HOU00322000—7

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · HOU won 3

2
0

Inn 1

Bregman 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
3

Inn 3

Walker 2

0
2

Inn 4

McCormick 2

0
2

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Anthony 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
HOU

Play-by-play · 558 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  2. T9

    Anthony struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

    +10pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  7. T9

    Bennett Sousa pitches to Roman Anthony

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  8. T9

    Sousa relieved De Los Santos

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  9. T9

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  10. T9

    Wong doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

    −8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  12. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Connor Wong

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  13. T9

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  14. T9

    Rafaela flied out to shortstop.

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

    +4pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  19. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  20. T9

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  21. T9

    Refsnyder grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

    +6pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  24. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Rob Refsnyder

    ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  25. T9

    Trammell in center field.

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  26. T9

    Sánchez in left field.

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  29. B8

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

  30. B8

    Trammell struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 6·HOU 7

    −1pp

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

6

Runs

7

10

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

22

TB

19

3

HR

2

2

BB

2

8

K

7

6

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872