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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1SEA
HOU

HOU

56-42

6
7
SEA

SEA

53-45

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
31,700 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

HOU 6 · SEA 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
HOU001013000106
SEA013000010117

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Jul 19·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Houston Astros, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Victor Caratini

Victor Caratini

C

1.583OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Luke Raley

Luke Raley

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
HOU56-42
6
7
SEA53-45
HOU56-42·SEA53-45
HOU

HOU

56-42

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-22010000
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
3-55231011
SPRINT27.867
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
3-44031021
SPRINT24.22
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-66011002
SPRINT29.395
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-44022021
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-66010002
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
0-55100003
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44010012
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-33100001
Z. ShortZ. ShortSS
0-22200000
C. HummelC. HummelLF
0-11000001
Team12-424261260614
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. McCullers Jr.L. McCullers Jr.★SP
2.2544310
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.1000030
R. GustoR. GustoSP
1.0000010
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.0000110
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0000000
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0111020
J. HaderJ. HaderRP
2.0010210
H. NerisH. NerisRP
0.1110000
Team10.1775690
SEA

SEA

53-45

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000012
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
1-55010001
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
0-55100000
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
2-44220011
SPRINT26.941
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
1-33210010
SPRINT25.310
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
1-11111010
SPRINT28.175
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-33112012
SPRINT25.920
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-33001000
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-44011011
SPRINT27.662
D. SolanoD. Solano1B
0-11000001
D. MooreD. MooreCF
0-11001000
M. MastrobuoniM. Mastrobuoni3B
0-11000001
Team7-3535776069
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. EvansL. Evans★SP
4.0622350
C. VargasC. VargasRP
1.1333000
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
0.2200000
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
1.0000030
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
1.0000010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000120
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0110210
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0000020
Team11.012656140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • B. Abreu
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      44%·86.9 mph·67% whiff
  • R. Gusto
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • ST
      25%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. King
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      64%·90.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      21%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.1 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • C. Legumina
    28 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      46%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

7

6

Runs

7

1

Errors

1

Current series

SEA wins series 4-2

Apr 8HOUHOU3@SEASEA4
Apr 9HOUHOU2@SEASEA1
Apr 9HOUHOU6@SEASEA7
Jul 19HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Jul 20HOUHOU6@SEASEA7today
Jul 20HOUHOU11@SEASEA3

Season series

SEA leads series 5-4

Apr 8HOUHOU3@SEASEA4
Apr 9HOUHOU2@SEASEA1
Apr 9HOUHOU6@SEASEA7
May 23SEASEA2@HOUHOU9
May 24SEASEA5@HOUHOU3
May 24SEASEA1@HOUHOU2
May 25SEASEA3@HOUHOU5
Jul 19HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Jul 20HOUHOU6@SEASEA7today
Jul 20HOUHOU11@SEASEA3
Sep 20SEASEA4@HOUHOU0
Sep 20SEASEA6@HOUHOU4
Sep 21SEASEA7@HOUHOU3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 11th Inning

HOUHOU
V. Caratini

V. Caratini

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.583 OPS

L. McCullers Jr.

L. McCullers Jr.

SP

Starting pitcher

2.2 IP · 1 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
L. Raley

L. Raley

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

L. Evans

L. Evans

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SEA beat HOU 7-6. Young's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

SEA vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 8th Inning · 5-4
+17pp→ 46% WP

Arozarena · doubled to left.

SEABottom 8th Inning · 5-5
+20pp→ 50% WP

Mastrobuoni · struck out swinging.

SEABottom 11th Inning · 6-7
+20pp→ 100% WP

Young · singled to right, Canzone scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
HOU001013000106
SEA013000010117

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · SEA won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Williamson 1

1
3

Inn 3

Smith 1

Canzone 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Walker 1

3
0

Inn 6

Altuve 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Mastrobuoni 1

0
0

Inn 9

1
1

Inn 10

Trammell 1

Moore 1

0
1

Inn 11

Young 1

HOU
SEA

Play-by-play · 781 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 7

  2. B11

    Young singled to right, Canzone scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 7

    +20pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 7

  4. B11

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  5. B11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  6. B11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  7. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  8. B11

    Hector Neris pitches to Cole Young

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 7

  9. B11

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  10. B11

    Mastrobuoni hit sacrifice bunt to third, Canzone to third.

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

    +2pp

  11. B11

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  12. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  13. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  14. B11

    Hector Neris pitches to Miles Mastrobuoni

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  15. B11

    Neris relieved Hader

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  16. B11

    Hummel in left field.

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  17. B11

    Trammell in center field.

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  18. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  19. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  20. T11

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  21. T11

    Hummel struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

    +8pp

  22. T11

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  23. T11

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  24. T11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  25. T11

    Eduard Bazardo pitches to Cooper Hummel

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  26. T11

    Hummel hit for McCormick

    ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  27. T11

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  28. T11

    Diaz grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

    +9pp

  29. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

  30. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 6·SEA 6

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

6

Runs

7

12

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

13

TB

9

0

HR

0

6

BB

6

14

K

9

28

LOB

19

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

SEA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.9%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.5%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.18 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    229
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    257
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 12, 25sim 94
    26
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    229
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 93
    216
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 93
    2212
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs