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Live · 4
  • MLBTop 6
    PHI 1@LAD 2
    +23.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 1@ATH 3
    +58.6pplow
  • MLBMid 6
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SF 0@COL 8
    +58.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5PHI
PHI

PHI

60-44

9
4
NYY

NYY

56-48

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
46,621 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 9 · NYY 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI1012014009
NYY0001002104

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 20, 25sim 97
    186
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    216
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    257
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    229
    13(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 94
    195
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 94
    256
    12(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into New York Yankees and beat them, 9–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI60-44
9
4
NYY56-48
PHI60-44·NYY56-48
PHI

PHI

60-44

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-66222001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-55022011
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-55111111
SPRINT2744
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-44021011
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
2-33120010
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
2-55220001
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-44112102
SPRINT28.278
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33110021
J. RojasJ. Rojas★CF
0-44101010
O. KempO. KempLF
0-11000000
Team13-40409139278
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
5.2711180
M. LazarM. LazarRP
0.1000000
D. RobertD. RobertRP
1.0122111
A. RangelA. RangelRP
1.0011310
S. JohnsonS. JohnsonSP
1.0100020
Team9.09445121
NYY

NYY

56-48

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.735
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
0-44100011
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000011
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
2-55122102
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-55120002
SPRINT28.175
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44100011
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
2-44020001
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
1-33010012
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
1-44011001
SPRINT26.838
Team9-36364931512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. StromanM. Stroman★SP
3.2544441
Y. De los SantosY. De los SantosRP
1.2311010
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
0.2000200
A. WinansA. WinansSP
3.0543131
Team9.01398782

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    108 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      32%·88.9 mph·15% whiff
    • CU
      22%·72.5 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      19%·77.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      13%·90.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      11%·84.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      2%·75.2 mph·— whiff
  • A. Rangel
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·82.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      3%·74.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Robert
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      45%·97.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      45%·85.4 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      10%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Johnson
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      54%·97.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      46%·88.8 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Lazar
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      50%·79.5 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • M. Stroman
    89 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      33%·90.0 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      26%·88.8 mph·18% whiff
    • SV
      13%·82.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      11%·81.2 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      2%·90.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Winans
    59 pitches·29% CSW
    • CH
      36%·82.9 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      31%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.8 mph·50% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    24 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      50%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·88.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FC
      44%·93.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      38%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·91.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

9

9

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jul 25PHIPHI12@NYYNYY5
Jul 26PHIPHI9@NYYNYY4today
Jul 27PHIPHI3@NYYNYY4

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

Jul 25PHIPHI12@NYYNYY5
Jul 26PHIPHI9@NYYNYY4today
Jul 27PHIPHI3@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 3rd Inning

PHIPHI
B. Marsh

B. Marsh

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

M. Stroman

M. Stroman

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

How it ended

PHI beat NYY 9-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 61% WP

Realmuto · singled to left, Turner scored.

PHITop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 70% WP

Harper · homered to right center (425 feet).

NYYBottom 4th Inning · 4-1
+8pp→ 21% WP

Dom · ínguez singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Volpe to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI1012014009
NYY0001002104

Period scoring

PHI won 5 · NYY won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Realmuto 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Harper 1

2
1

Inn 4

Rojas 1

Dom 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Turner 1

4
2

Inn 7

Sosa 2

Stanton 2

0
1

Inn 8

Goldschmidt 1

0
0

Inn 9

PHI
NYY

Play-by-play · 690 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  3. B9

    Rice popped out to third.

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  6. B9

    Seth Johnson pitches to Ben Rice

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  7. B9

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  8. B9

    Chisholm Jr. struck out looking.

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  12. B9

    Stanton to second on wild pitch by Johnson.

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  13. B9

    Stanton to second on wild pitch by Johnson.

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  15. B9

    Seth Johnson pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    · ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  16. B9

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  17. B9

    Stanton singled to right.

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  22. B9

    Seth Johnson pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  23. B9

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  24. B9

    Bellinger struck out swinging.

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  28. B9

    Seth Johnson pitches to Cody Bellinger

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  29. B9

    Johnson relieved Rangel

    ·

    PHI 9·NYY 4

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 9·NYY 4

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

9

Runs

4

13

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

24

TB

12

2

HR

1

7

BB

5

8

K

12

26

LOB

27

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    51.1%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.5%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.5%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.