MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SEA

74-58

SEA

71-61

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington

27,785 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
50.8%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.2%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.0± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low
Logan GilbertSEA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.2high
Samad TaylorSD
1.3± 1.2low
Cole YoungSEA
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Colt EmersonSEA
2.1± 1.8high
Dominic CanzoneSEA
2.0± 2.8high
Samad TaylorSD
1.8± 2.6low

RBIs

Samad TaylorSD
1.0± 1.8low
Colt EmersonSEA
0.7± 0.8high
Josh NaylorSEA
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.8± 3.1low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

SEA

.658

OPS

.717

▶

.713

.293

OBP

.319

▶

.316

3.89

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.26

3.91

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.69

1.29

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SD 6 · SEA 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	6
SEA	1	2	0	1	5	0	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.263	5	1	1	2	1	0	2
L. Arraez2B	.286	5	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.289	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. O'HearnRF	.254	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
X. BogaertsSS	.262	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. Sheets1B	.256	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
R. LaureanoLF	.321	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.243	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
F. FerminC	.259	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
W. Wagner3B	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	6	10	6	4	2	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.263

.286

.289

.254

.262

.256

.321

.243

.259

.500

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. SearsSP	3.2	5	4	3	1	2	58
D. MorganRP	1.0	2	5	5	2	2	33
W. PeraltaRP	1.1	3	0	0	0	2	19
Y. MatsuiRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	22
Team	8.0	10	9	8	3	7	132

Player

3.2

1.0

1.1

2.0

Team

8.0

132

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
R. ArozarenaLF	.240	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
C. RaleighC	.247	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. RodriguezCF	.259	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.169	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Naylor1B	.255	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
M. GarverC	.208	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
J. Polanco1B	.252	4	2	3	4	1	0	0
J.P. CrawfordSS	.264	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		34	9	10	8	2	3	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. MillerSP	5.0	6	4	4	1	4	81
C. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
E. BazardoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	16
M. BrashRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	3	23
A. MunozRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	1	20
Team	9.0	10	6	5	2	12	150

Team

SEA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs SD.

3 sub-models, blended.