HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBTop 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBTop 1
    TB 0@LAA 0
    -4.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.5pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA35.4 - 4th
    TOR 80@WSH 84
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5NYY
WSH

WSH

53-78

5
10
NYY

NYY

71-60

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
36,939 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

WSH

league avg

NYY

NYY

.741

OPS

.715

▶

.765

.323

OBP

.319

▶

.331

5.31

Runs / G

◀

4.50

5.10

4.72

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.35

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

WSH 5 · NYY 10 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000000055
NYY1010503010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 25·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees held off Washington Nationals, 10–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. LordWSH−29.2pp
  2. 2B. RiceNYY+16.3pp
  3. 3A. JudgeNYY+12.4pp

WSH · top performer

WSH
Jacob Young

Jacob Young

CF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodRF
.2595020003
C. AbramsSS
.2633010011
L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2674020002
J. BellDH
.2274010000
R. AdamsC
.2084110001
P. DeJong3B
.2414110002
D. CrewsRF
.1993100012
R. Hassell IIICF
.2262101020
J. YoungCF
.2313114111
Team325951512

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. LordRP
4.18762578
J. RutledgeRP
1.21000220
C. HenryRP
1.02331121
P. PoulinRP
1.01001022
Team8.01210948141

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamCF
.2494120002
B. Rice1B
.2413211120
A. JudgeRF
.3234111010
C. BellingerLF
.2723123000
J. Chisholm Jr.2B
.2403212111
P. Goldschmidt1B
.2854120002
J. DominguezLF
.2564113101
R. McMahon3B
.2134010001
J. CaballeroSS
.2814110001
- A. Rosario3B
.5001000000
Team34101210348

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. SchlittlerSP
6.04003896
Y. De los SantosRP
2.24442347
M. Leiter Jr.RP
0.1111017
Team9.0955512150

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • B. Lord
    78 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.1 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.5 mph·17% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      50%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      27%·78.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·90.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Henry
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.1 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      48%·81.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      60%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      5%·85.2 mph·— whiff

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    96 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.8 mph·24% whiff
    • FC
      23%·91.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. De los Santos
    47 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      53%·95.5 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      47%·87.6 mph·53% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      43%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      29%·73.6 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      29%·84.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

12

5

Runs

10

1

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

Aug 25WSHWSH5@NYYNYY10today
Aug 26WSHWSH1@NYYNYY5
Aug 27WSHWSH2@NYYNYY11

Season series

NYY lead series 1-0

Aug 25WSHWSH5@NYYNYY10today
Aug 26WSHWSH1@NYYNYY5
Aug 27WSHWSH2@NYYNYY11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 8pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

WSHWSH
J. Young

J. Young

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYY beat WSH 10-5.

Win probability

NYY vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+8pp→ 83% WP

Rice · homered to right center (435 feet).

WSHTop 4th Inning · 0-2
+6pp→ 23% WP

Abrams · singled to center.

NYYTop 4th Inning · 0-2
+6pp→ 82% WP

Adams · popped out to first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000000055
NYY10105030—10

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · NYY won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Bellinger 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Rice 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
5

Inn 5

Bellinger 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Dom 3

0
0

Inn 8

5

Inn 9

Young 4

WSH
NYY

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  2. T9

    Wood struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  8. T9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to James Wood

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  9. T9

    ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  10. T9

    Young homered to right center (393 feet), DeJong scored, Crews scored and Hassell III scored.

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 1·NYY 10

  13. T9

    Mark Leiter Jr. pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    WSH 5·NYY 10

  14. T9

    Leiter Jr. relieved De los Santos

    ·

    WSH 1·NYY 10

  15. T9

    · ·

    WSH 1·NYY 10

  16. T9

    Hassell III walked, Adams scored, Crews to second, DeJong to third.

    · ·

    WSH 1·NYY 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 1·NYY 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  23. T9

    Yerry De los Santos pitches to Robert Hassell III

    · ·

    WSH 1·NYY 10

  24. T9

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  25. T9

    Crews walked, DeJong to second, Adams to third.

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  26. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  27. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    WSH 0·NYY 10

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

5

Runs

10

9

Hits

12

1

Errors

0

12

TB

23

1

HR

3

5

BB

4

12

K

8

11

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYY vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.7± 3.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.1± 2.4low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.0± 3.3low

Hits

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Trent GrishamNYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    2.0± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Miles MikolasWSH
    2.3± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.5%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    64.0%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    65.7%

    P(NYY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.8%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.