HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBMid 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBTop 1
    TB 0@LAA 0
    -4.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.5pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.1pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA35.4 - 4th
    TOR 80@WSH 84
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+9TB
TB

TB

64-67

9
0
CLE

CLE

64-66

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
16,325 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TB

TB

league avg

CLE

CLE

.722

OPS

◀

.715

.689

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.317

4.57

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.03

3.91

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.79

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.26

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 9 · CLE 0 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CLE +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0002204019
CLE0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 25·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Cleveland Guardians and beat them, 9–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1I. SeymourTB+34.1pp
  2. 2T. BibeeCLE−30.0pp
  3. 3J. CamineroTB+28.5pp

TB · top performer

TB
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

3B

2.800OPS

5-4

AB-H

4

R

3

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Gabriel Arias

Gabriel Arias

SS

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonLF
.3025000000
Y. DiazDH
.2805121101
B. Lowe2B
.2664110011
J. Caminero3B
.2615443200
J. LoweLF
.2375120001
J. MangumLF
.2825110000
H. FeducciaC
.1352101021
C. WilliamsSS
.4175022001
B. Seymour1B
.2144021000
Team409148335

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
I. SeymourRP
5.01001867
G. CleavingerRP
1.00000111
B. BakerRP
1.00000213
M. EnglertRP
2.01001234
Team9.0200213125

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanCF
.2714000000
A. MartinezLF
.2284000003
J. Ramirez3B
.2864000002
K. Manzardo1B
.2314000002
C. Santana1B
.2253000001
G. AriasSS
.2233010002
B. NaylorC
.1791000021
B. RocchioSS
.2353010001
N. JonesRF
.2113000001
Team290200213

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. BibeeSP
6.08553398
T. HerrinRP
0.23330218
J. JunisRP
1.1100009
A. HedgesC
1.02110017
Team9.0149935142

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • I. Seymour
    67 pitches·33% CSW
    • CH
      36%·84.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      30%·91.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Englert
    34 pitches·35% CSW
    • CH
      35%·87.4 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      32%·94.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • CH
      54%·85.9 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      15%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      45%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·97.5 mph·50% whiff

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    98 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      32%·93.5 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      27%·81.4 mph·41% whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·85.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • CU
      33%·82.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Hedges
    17 pitches·6% CSW
    • FA
      100%·74.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Junis
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      44%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

2

9

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0today
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4

Season series

TB leads series 1-0

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0today
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4
Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 5th Inning

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.800 OPS

I. Seymour

I. Seymour

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
G. Arias

G. Arias

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

TB beat CLE 9-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CLE vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 49% WP

Caminero · reached on infield single to second.

TBTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 55% WP

Feduccia · walked, Caminero scored on throwing error by catcher Naylor.

TBTop 5th Inning · 4-0
+14pp→ 89% WP

Caminero · homered to center (412 feet), B. Lowe scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0002204019
CLE0000000000

Period scoring

TB won 4 · CLE won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Feduccia 1

2
0

Inn 5

Caminero 2

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Williams 2

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Feduccia 1

TB
CLE

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 9·CLE 0

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  3. B9

    Manzardo flied out to right.

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  11. B9

    Mason Englert pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  12. B9

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  13. B9

    Ramírez flied out to left.

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  16. B9

    Mason Englert pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  17. B9

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  18. B9

    Martínez struck out swinging.

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  23. B9

    Mason Englert pitches to Angel Martinez

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 9·CLE 0

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 9·CLE 0

  26. T9

    ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  27. T9

    Williams grounded into fielder's choice to second, J. Lowe out at second.

    · ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 9·CLE 0

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

9

Runs

0

14

Hits

2

0

Errors

1

28

TB

2

3

HR

0

3

BB

2

5

K

13

14

LOB

9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

CLE vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.0± 3.5low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    6.0± 4.2low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    5.8± 2.3low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.1± 1.7high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.8± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Ryan ViladeTB
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    2.8± 2.5low
  • Joey CantilloCLE
    2.7± 3.0low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    52.9%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.2%

    P(CLE win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.7%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.