HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBMid 7
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -7.3pppeak
  • MLBTop 1
    TB 0@LAA 0
    -4.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.5pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -38.0pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBMid 8
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBEnd 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA30.9 - 4th
    TOR 83@WSH 84
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
WSH

WSH

53-77

2
3
PHI

PHI

76-54

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
42,580 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

WSH

league avg

PHI

PHI

.741

OPS

◀

.715

.682

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.296

5.31

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.72

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.05

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

WSH 2 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +17pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH0000000112
PHI021000003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Washington Nationals, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. WoodWSH−21.3pp
  2. 2J. AlvaradoPHI−21.2pp
  3. 3T. BanksPHI+20.8pp

WSH · top performer

WSH
Luis Garcia Jr.

Luis Garcia Jr.

1B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader

CF

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodRF
.2584000003
C. AbramsSS
.2624000002
R. AdamsC
.2074010001
A. Chaparro1B
.1903000001
P. DeJong3B
.2413000002
D. CrewsRF
.2024000001
B. House3B
.2423110001
R. Hassell IIICF
.2302000011
J. YoungCF
.2302020010
- L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2641111100
- J. BellDH
.2261000000
Team312511212

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. IrvinSP
2.16332269
S. OgasawaraRP
2.20002247
J. RutledgeRP
1.01001118
K. PilkingtonRP
1.00000316
C. BeeterRP
1.00000114
Team8.073359164

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerSS
.3005010001
K. SchwarberDH
.2482000020
B. Harper1B
.2634010000
A. Bohm3B
.2824110003
N. CastellanosRF
.2584120001
B. MarshLF
.2594000003
H. BaderCF
.2502010021
B. Stott2B
.2484100000
R. MarchanC
.1833013010
Team32373059

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. SuarezSP
7.030001190
J. AlvaradoRP
0.01112013
T. BanksRP
1.0000008
O. KerkeringRP
1.01110117
Team9.0522212128

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    69 pitches·22% CSW
    • CU
      36%·78.0 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      20%·93.0 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    47 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      26%·82.1 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      23%·72.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·80.2 mph·17% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      44%·85.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      39%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      6%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      44%·86.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      31%·85.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      50%·86.9 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    90 pitches·34% CSW
    • SI
      28%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·74.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      18%·79.7 mph·71% whiff
    • FC
      13%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      12%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·79.2 mph·20% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • SI
      41%·96.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      29%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      29%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      69%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.3 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      15%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      50%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 4-2

Apr 29WSHWSH6@PHIPHI7
Apr 30WSHWSH2@PHIPHI7
May 1WSHWSH4@PHIPHI2
Aug 22WSHWSH5@PHIPHI4
Aug 23WSHWSH4@PHIPHI6
Aug 24WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3today

Season series

PHI wins series 8-5

Mar 27PHIPHI7@WSHWSH3
Mar 29PHIPHI11@WSHWSH6
Mar 30PHIPHI1@WSHWSH5
Apr 29WSHWSH6@PHIPHI7
Apr 30WSHWSH2@PHIPHI7
May 1WSHWSH4@PHIPHI2
Aug 14PHIPHI2@WSHWSH3
Aug 15PHIPHI6@WSHWSH2
Aug 16PHIPHI0@WSHWSH2
Aug 17PHIPHI11@WSHWSH9
Aug 22WSHWSH5@PHIPHI4
Aug 23WSHWSH4@PHIPHI6
Aug 24WSHWSH2@PHIPHI3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 8th Inning

WSHWSH
L. Garcia Jr.

L. Garcia Jr.

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

S. Ogasawara

S. Ogasawara

RP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 2 BB

PHIPHI
H. Bader

H. Bader

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 11 K · 0 ER · 3 H

How it ended

PHI beat WSH 3-2. Wood's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

PHI vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 87% WP

March · án doubled to center, Castellanos scored and Stott scored.

PHITop 8th Inning · 1-3
+18pp→ 92% WP

Wood · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, House scored, Young out at second, Hassell III to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH0000000112
PHI02100000—3

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · PHI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

March 2

0
1

Inn 3

March 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Wood 1

1

Inn 9

Garc 1

WSH
PHI

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  2. T9

    Crews grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  9. T9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Dylan Crews

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  10. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  11. T9

    Bell grounded out to catcher.

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

    +4pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  15. T9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Josh Bell

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  16. T9

    Bell hit for DeJong

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  17. T9

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  18. T9

    García Jr. homered to right center (414 feet).

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

    −4pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  22. T9

    Orion Kerkering pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    WSH 2·PHI 3

  23. T9

    García Jr. hit for Chaparro

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  24. T9

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  25. T9

    Adams struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

    +4pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 1·PHI 3

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

9

TB

9

1

HR

0

2

BB

5

12

K

9

9

LOB

20

Player projections

PHI vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    8.1± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.0± 3.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.0± 4.1low

Hits

  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Brandon MarshPHI
    2.2± 2.2high
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Aaron NolaPHI
    3.5± 2.6low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.4± 3.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.8%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    67.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    70.4%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.6%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175