MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CIN

STL

68-70

CIN

69-68

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

27,238 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
55.2%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.8%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.8%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.22 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.1± 2.8low
Dustin MaySTL
5.7± 3.6low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
5.0± 3.2low

Hits

Blaze JordanSTL
1.2± 1.1low
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.5± 1.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
2.4± 3.6low
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.3± 1.8high

RBIs

Blaze JordanSTL
1.0± 1.6low
Jordan WalkerSTL
1.0± 1.4high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 1.8high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.1± 1.8low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

CIN

.721

OPS

◀

.717

.710

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.313

4.58

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.31

4.06

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.59

1.32

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

STL 4 · CIN 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
CIN	0	3	0	0	2	0	1	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. NootbaarLF	.239	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
I. HerreraDH	.286	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Gorman3B	.217	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
T. SaggeseLF	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
C. Prieto3B	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. WalkerRF	.223	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. CrooksC	.250	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
N. ChurchLF	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	4	7	4	1	0	15

Player

.239

.286

.253

.217

.254

.200

.223

.250

.118

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PallanteSP	5.0	6	5	2	4	6	95
G. GraceffoRP	1.2	3	1	1	1	3	38
A. GranilloRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	19
Team	8.0	10	7	4	5	11	152

Player

A. PallanteSP

5.0

G. GraceffoRP

1.2

A. GranilloRP

1.1

Team

8.0

152

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.265	5	0	3	2	0	0	2
N. MarteRF	.290	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. De La CruzSS	.272	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. HaysLF	.264	4	2	2	2	1	0	1
G. LuxLF	.274	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
S. SteerLF	.236	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
K. Hayes3B	.253	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
W. BanfieldC	.100	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. McLain2B	.222	2	1	1	1	1	2	1
S. Espinal3B	.245	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	7	10	7	2	5	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. SingerSP	6.0	5	3	3	0	8	102
S. MollRP	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	13
N. MartinezSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
T. SantillanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19
E. PaganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	15
Team	9.0	7	4	4	0	15	155

Team

STL

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs STL.

3 sub-models, blended.