MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5ATH

LAA

59-64

ATH

56-69

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

10,035 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.8%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.1%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.3%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium

Hits

Jo AdellLAA
1.3± 1.5high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.2± 0.8high
Zack GelofATH
1.2± 0.5high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.5± 2.5high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.9high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.3± 3.0high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.6low
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.9± 1.3high
Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
3.8± 3.6low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 1.8medium
Reid DetmersLAA
2.6± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

ATH

.708

OPS

.717

▶

.747

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.330

4.49

Runs / G

4.50

4.51

4.62

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.85

1.43

WHIP

1.31

1.44

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

LAA 2 · ATH 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
ATH	2	0	2	0	1	0	0	2	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.271	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
N. Schanuel1B	.267	4	0	3	0	0	1	1
M. TroutCF	.237	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. WardLF	.234	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. Moncada3B	.238	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. AdellRF	.223	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
L. Rengifo3B	.249	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. TeodosioLF	.294	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
C. Moore2B	.183	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	2	7	1	0	5	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.271

.267

.237

.234

.238

.223

.249

.233

.294

.183

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. AndersonSP	4.0	3	4	4	5	1	85
R. ZeferjahnRP	2.0	2	1	1	1	3	37
L. GarciaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
C. BrogdonRP	0.2	2	2	2	2	1	29
A. ChafinRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	8.0	8	7	7	8	6	166

Player

4.0

2.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

166

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
S. LangeliersC	.271	4	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. RookerDH	.275	4	2	2	2	1	1	0
N. Kurtz1B	.306	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
C. ThomasRF	.255	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
T. SoderstromLF	.264	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
D. HernaizSS	.250	3	1	2	2	0	1	1
B. Harris3B	.333	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
L. ButlerRF	.230	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. SchuemannSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	7	8	7	2	8	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
L. MoralesSP	5.0	5	1	1	2	5	87
J. SternerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21
T. FergusonRP	1.1	0	0	0	2	2	25
S. NewcombRP	1.2	2	1	0	0	3	32
Team	9.0	7	2	1	5	11	165

Team

LAA

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.