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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5DET
HOU

HOU

69-58

2
7
DET

DET

76-53

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
29,216 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

HOU 2 · DET 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0002000002
DET601000007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 27, 25sim 98
    173
    19(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 96
    170
    19(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 96
    188
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    64
    22(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 96
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 94
    103
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Houston Astros, 7–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yainer Diaz

Yainer Diaz

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Javier Baez

Javier Baez

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU69-58
2
7
DET76-53
HOU69-58·DET76-53
HOU

HOU

69-58

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-44010010
SPRINT28.483
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-33010010
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000002
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-44000003
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
2-33120011
SPRINT25.513
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-00000000
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44112100
SPRINT26.428
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000002
J. MeltonJ. MeltonLF
0-22000001
C. McCormickC. McCormickLF
0-11000000
Team5-33332521310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. ValdezF. Valdez★SP
5.0777420
S. DubinS. DubinRP
1.0000010
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.0000010
L. VanWeyL. VanWeyRP
1.0000010
Team8.0777450
DET

DET

76-53

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
1-22110010
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-33100011
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
1-44111001
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-44111000
SPRINT26.123
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-22100020
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-44221001
SPRINT27.765
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000001
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
2-33022000
SPRINT27.251
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
0-33000001
Team7-2929775045
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MortonC. Morton★SP
6.0322381
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
1.1100010
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.2100000
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.0000010
Team9.05223101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • F. Valdez
    96 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      54%·93.0 mph·32% whiff
    • CU
      21%·78.1 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      17%·88.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
  • S. Dubin
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      29%·81.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      7%·88.6 mph·— whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      42%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. VanWey
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      70%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      20%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.8 mph·— whiff

DET

  • C. Morton
    94 pitches·32% CSW
    • CU
      31%·80.9 mph·53% whiff
    • SI
      26%·93.6 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      21%·87.7 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      16%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      64%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      9%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Montero
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      29%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Holton
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      33%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·81.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      17%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·91.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

7

0

Errors

2

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Aug 18HOUHOU0@DETDET10
Aug 19HOUHOU0@DETDET1
Aug 20HOUHOU2@DETDET7today

Season series

DET wins series 4-2

Apr 29DETDET5@HOUHOU8
Apr 30DETDET4@HOUHOU6
Apr 30DETDET7@HOUHOU4
Aug 18HOUHOU0@DETDET10
Aug 19HOUHOU0@DETDET1
Aug 20HOUHOU2@DETDET7today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 11pp · Bottom 1st Inning

HOUHOU
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

F. Valdez

F. Valdez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 7 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

DETDET
J. Baez

J. Baez

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

C. Morton

C. Morton

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

DET beat HOU 7-2.

Win probability

DET vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+11pp→ 82% WP

Torkelson · hit a ground rule double, Torres scored, Ibáñez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0002000002
DET60100000—7

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · DET won 2

0
6

Inn 1

Dingler 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Dub 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
DET

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  2. T9

    Peña lined out to center.

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  6. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Jeremy Pena

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  7. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  8. T9

    Smith struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  13. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Cam Smith

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  14. T9

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  15. T9

    Dubón grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  23. T9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  24. T9

    Montero relieved Holton

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 2·DET 7

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 2·DET 7

  27. B8

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  28. B8

    Pérez grounded out to second.

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  29. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

  30. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 2·DET 7

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

DET

Home

2

Runs

7

5

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

9

TB

11

1

HR

0

3

BB

4

10

K

5

18

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.1%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    56.1%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.9%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.