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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
DET

DET

64-47

4
5
PHI

PHI

62-47

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,241 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

DET 4 · PHI 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0030000104
PHI000000325

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 1·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Detroit Tigers, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Wenceel Perez

Wenceel Perez

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Otto Kemp

Otto Kemp

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET64-47
4
5
PHI62-47
DET64-47·PHI62-47
DET

DET

64-47

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. JonesJ. Jones★DH
0-33100001
SPRINT28.278
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-44113100
SPRINT25.18
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
0-33000000
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000002
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-44000000
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT28.483
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-33000001
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
2-33221100
SPRINT27.969
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
1-33010000
SPRINT27.251
K. CarpenterK. CarpenterRF
0-11000000
C. KeithC. Keith3B
0-11000000
Team5-3232454205
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
6.0211370
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.2122100
W. VestW. VestRP
0.1200010
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
0.2221020
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.1100010
Team8.08544110
PHI

PHI

62-47

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44011002
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-33000012
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44000001
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
2-44220002
SPRINT27.148
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-22000001
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-22000000
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
1-44010001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-11012020
SPRINT28.688
O. KempO. KempLF
2-22221000
H. BaderH. BaderCF
0-11100011
Team8-32325850411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
7.0433051
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0111001
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000000
Team9.0544052

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    95 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.4 mph·16% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      25%·78.8 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      1%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      61%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.9 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Holton
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      31%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      25%·88.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      25%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.4 mph·— whiff
  • W. Vest
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      50%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      30%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·90.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.2 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hurter
    9 pitches·56% CSW
    • SI
      67%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.9 mph·100% whiff

PHI

  • R. Suarez
    92 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      32%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·78.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      18%·72.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      12%·85.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      1%·77.0 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      58%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FS
      100%·99.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

4

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Aug 1DETDET4@PHIPHI5today
Aug 2DETDET7@PHIPHI5
Aug 3DETDET0@PHIPHI2

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Aug 1DETDET4@PHIPHI5today
Aug 2DETDET7@PHIPHI5
Aug 3DETDET0@PHIPHI2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 32pp · Bottom 8th Inning

DETDET
W. Perez

W. Perez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

PHIPHI
O. Kemp

O. Kemp

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 4 H

How it ended

PHI beat DET 5-4. Kemp's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Win probability

PHI vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+30pp→ 73% WP

Torres · homered to left (404 feet), Pérez scored and Jones scored.

PHIBottom 8th Inning · 4-4
+32pp→ 64% WP

Kemp · doubled to left, Castellanos scored.

PHIBottom 8th Inning · 4-5
+26pp→ 85% WP

Stott · reached on infield single to shortstop, Kemp scored, Sosa to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0030000104
PHI00000032—5

Period scoring

DET won 1 · PHI won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Torres 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
3

Inn 7

Stott 1

1
2

Inn 8

Kemp 1

0

Inn 9

DET
PHI

Play-by-play · 516 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  2. T9

    Greene lined out to left.

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  4. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  5. T9

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  6. T9

    Torkelson fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

    +6pp

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  8. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Spencer Torkelson

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  9. T9

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  10. T9

    Keith grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

    +8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  13. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Colt Keith

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  14. T9

    Duran relieved Kerkering

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  15. T9

    Keith hit for Ibáñez

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  16. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    DET 4·PHI 5

  17. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    DET 4·PHI 5

  18. B8

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  19. B8

    Turner struck out swinging.

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

    −4pp

  20. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  21. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  22. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  23. B8

    Stott stole second.

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  24. B8

    Stott stole second.

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  25. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  26. B8

    Brant Hurter pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  27. B8

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 4

  28. B8

    Stott reached on infield single to shortstop, Kemp scored, Sosa to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

    +26pp

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 5

  30. B8

    Sosa stole second.

    · ·

    DET 4·PHI 4

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

4

Runs

5

5

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

11

TB

10

2

HR

0

0

BB

4

5

K

11

3

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PHI vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    54.8%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 4, 25sim 98
    188
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 97
    103
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 97
    136
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 96
    187
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    182
    6(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs