HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3LAD
CIN

CIN

68-65

3
6
LAD

LAD

76-57

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
44,943 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

CIN

league avg

LAD

LAD

.705

OPS

.717

▶

.788

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.346

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.36

4.68

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.37

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

CIN 3 · LAD 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN1000002003
LAD100104006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 26·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Cincinnati Reds, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1E. HernándezLAD+22.5pp
  2. 2N. MarteCIN−21.3pp
  3. 3N. MartinezCIN−18.6pp

CIN · top performer

CIN
Austin Hays

Austin Hays

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Will Smith

Will Smith

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. SteerLF
.2364120001
N. MarteRF
.2944010002
E. De La CruzSS
.2734010002
M. AndujarDH
.3393101010
A. HaysLF
.2684122101
J. TrevinoC
.2442000001
K. Hayes3B
.2503000001
S. Espinal3B
.2442000000
M. McLain2B
.2203010001
- G. LuxLF
.2781000001
- W. BanfieldC
.0001000000
- W. BensonRF
.2191000001
Team323731111

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
N. MartinezSP
5.174423104
B. SuterRP
0.13220010
Z. MaxwellRP
1.10002124
C. PhillipsRP
1.00000210
Team8.0106646148

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2784011012
M. BettsSS
.2492100020
F. Freeman1B
.3024010000
W. SmithC
.2953111111
T. HernándezLF
.2484110000
A. PagesCF
.2754020001
M. ConfortoDH
.1892010000
E. Hernández1B
.2033121001
A. Freeland2B
.2062000001
- A. CallLF
.2781100000
- J. DeanCF
.0001000000
- M. RojasSS
.2552112000
Team326105146

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. KershawSP
5.02110672
E. HenriquezRP
1.0200006
B. CaspariusRP
1.01221320
B. TreinenRP
1.01000214
T. ScottRP
1.01000015
Team9.0733111127

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • B. Suter
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      38%·88.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      24%·79.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      10%·80.3 mph·— whiff
  • C. Phillips
    13 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      62%·97.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      38%·85.4 mph·0% whiff

LAD

  • E. Henriquez
    22 pitches·41% CSW
    • SI
      27%·101.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      23%·95.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      23%·101.6 mph·20% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • ST
      43%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·92.0 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

3

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Aug 26CINCIN0@LADLAD7
Aug 27CINCIN3@LADLAD6today
Aug 28CINCIN1@LADLAD5

Season series

LAD lead series 4-1

Jul 28LADLAD5@CINCIN2
Jul 29LADLAD5@CINCIN4
Jul 30LADLAD2@CINCIN5
Aug 26CINCIN0@LADLAD7
Aug 27CINCIN3@LADLAD6today
Aug 28CINCIN1@LADLAD5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 6th Inning

CINCIN
A. Hays

A. Hays

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
W. Smith

W. Smith

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Kershaw

C. Kershaw

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H

How it ended

LAD beat CIN 6-3.

Win probability

LAD vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LADBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 70% WP

Freeman · doubled to left, Betts scored on throwing error by left fielder Hays.

LADTop 6th Inning · 1-2
+17pp→ 76% WP

Marte · bunt popped into double play, pitcher to second, McLain doubled off second.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 1-5
+9pp→ 96% WP

Rojas · doubled to center, E. Hernández scored and Call scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN1000002003
LAD10010400—6

Period scoring

CIN won 1 · LAD won 2

1
1

Inn 1

Andujar 1

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Hern 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
4

Inn 6

Rojas 2

2
0

Inn 7

Hays 2

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CIN
LAD

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  2. T9

    Banfield grounded into double play, third to second to first, Hays out at second.

    · ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  7. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Will Banfield

    · ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  8. T9

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  9. T9

    Hays singled to center.

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

    −2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  18. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Austin Hays

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  19. T9

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  20. T9

    Andujar fouled out to first.

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

    +2pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  24. T9

    Tanner Scott pitches to Miguel Andujar

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  25. T9

    Scott relieved Treinen

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  28. B8

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  29. B8

    Ohtani struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 3·LAD 6

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

3

Runs

6

7

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

11

TB

17

1

HR

1

1

BB

4

11

K

6

8

LOB

14

Player projections

LAD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.4± 3.0low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.7± 3.9low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Dalton RushingLAD
    1.0± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.6± 1.9high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.8± 1.4high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    0.9± 1.7low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Kyle TuckerLAD
    0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.1± 1.8low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.0%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    56.9%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(LAD win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.6%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.53 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.