
CIN
68-65

LAD
76-57
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
CIN
league avg
LAD
.705
OPS
.717
▶.788
.312
OBP
.319
▶.346
4.19
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.36
4.68
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.37
1.46
WHIP
1.31
▶1.09
7.9
K / 9
8.5
▶9.1
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAD wins
CIN 3 · LAD 6 (by 3)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked LAD +7pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Dodgers held off Cincinnati Reds, 6–3.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CIN · top performer

Austin Hays
LF
4-2
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
LAD · top performer

Will Smith
C
3-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .236 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .294 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .273 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .339 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .268 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| .244 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .244 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .220 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .278 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .219 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 32 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 104 | |
| 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 24 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 148 |
| Player | AVG | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .278 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .249 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .302 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .295 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| .248 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .275 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .189 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .203 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .206 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .278 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .255 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 32 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 72 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 20 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 127 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantCIN
LAD
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
7
Hits
10
3
Runs
6
1
Errors
0
Current series
LAD win series 3-0
Season series
LAD lead series 4-1
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 6th Inning
A. Hays
LFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS
N. Martinez
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB
W. Smith
CBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
C. Kershaw
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 2 H
How it ended
LAD beat CIN 6-3.
Win probability
LAD vs CIN
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactFreeman · doubled to left, Betts scored on throwing error by left fielder Hays.
Marte · bunt popped into double play, pitcher to second, McLain doubled off second.
Rojas · doubled to center, E. Hernández scored and Call scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
Period scoring
CIN won 1 · LAD won 2
Inn 1
Andujar 1
Freeman 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Hern 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Rojas 2
Inn 7
Hays 2
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 537 plays
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Banfield grounded into double play, third to second to first, Hays out at second.
· ·
CIN 3·LAD 6
+3pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Tanner Scott pitches to Will Banfield
· ·
CIN 3·LAD 6
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Hays singled to center.
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
−2pp
Pitch 8 : Ball In Play
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 7 : Ball 3
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 6 : Ball 2
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Tanner Scott pitches to Austin Hays
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Andujar fouled out to first.
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
+2pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Tanner Scott pitches to Miguel Andujar
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Scott relieved Treinen
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Top of the 9th inning
CIN 3·LAD 6
End of the 8th inning
CIN 3·LAD 6
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Ohtani struck out swinging.
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
CIN 3·LAD 6
Team stats
CIN
Away
Stat
LAD
Home
3
Runs
6
7
Hits
10
1
Errors
0
11
TB
17
1
HR
1
1
BB
4
11
K
6
8
LOB
14
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 86 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
58.0%
ensemble · LAD favored
Elo Static
56.9%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.2%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.6%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.53 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.