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  • MLBBot 1
    ARI 0@SEA 0
    +5.4ppmedium
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    -6.0ppmedium
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    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +42.8ppmedium
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    +58.9pplow
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    -47.3pppeak
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    +38.1pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3ATH
ATH

ATH

57-70

6
3
MIN

MIN

58-67

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
22,725 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 6 · MIN 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0023010006
MIN0101100003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesATH wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Jeffers

Ryan Jeffers

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH57-70
6
3
MIN58-67
ATH57-70·MIN58-67
ATH

ATH

57-70

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
3-33131020
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-55112101
SPRINT28.586
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44000003
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT26.735
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-44110001
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
2-44220002
SPRINT27.969
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-44010001
B. HarrisB. Harris★3B
1-33012000
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
1-33011001
C. CortesC. CortesRF
0-11000000
Team11-35356116129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
6.0432182
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
2.0200020
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
1.0000000
Team9.06321102
MIN

MIN

58-67

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
0-44000001
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
2-44121101
SPRINT26.326
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT26.632
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010003
SPRINT28.688
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44211100
SPRINT26.428
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-33000001
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
0-44000001
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
1-33011001
SPRINT2622
Team6-33333632110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
4.0755161
P. OhlP. OhlRP
4.0311030
E. RamirezE. RamirezRP
1.0100100
Team9.01166291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    94 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      36%·91.3 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      28%·77.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      11%·82.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.3 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    31 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.0 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      35%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      19%·81.5 mph·33% whiff
  • H. Harris
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      64%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      18%·74.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.9 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    87 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·93.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.3 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      3%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      1%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Ohl
    54 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      41%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      39%·80.5 mph·31% whiff
    • FC
      11%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
    • KN
      6%·79.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      4%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Ramirez
    25 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      40%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      28%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

6

6

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATH wins series 3-0

Aug 19ATHATH6@MINMIN3today
Aug 20ATHATH4@MINMIN2
Aug 21ATHATH8@MINMIN3

Season series

MIN leads series 3-2

Jun 3MINMIN10@ATHATH4
Jun 4MINMIN10@ATHATH3
Jun 5MINMIN6@ATHATH1
Jun 5MINMIN3@ATHATH14
Aug 19ATHATH6@MINMIN3today
Aug 20ATHATH4@MINMIN2
Aug 21ATHATH8@MINMIN3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 3rd Inning

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
R. Jeffers

R. Jeffers

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATH beat MIN 6-3. Langeliers's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 3rd Inning · 2-1
+21pp→ 47% WP

Langeliers · homered to left (402 feet), Kurtz scored.

ATHTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 68% WP

Butler · doubled to right, Soderstrom to third.

MINBottom 5th Inning · 5-3
+11pp→ 29% WP

Jeffers · homered to left (371 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0023010006
MIN0101100003

Period scoring

ATH won 3 · MIN won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Wallner 1

2
0

Inn 3

Langeliers 2

3
1

Inn 4

Harris 1

Lee 1

0
1

Inn 5

Jeffers 1

1
0

Inn 6

Harris 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ATH
MIN

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  2. B9

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  3. B9

    Martin lined out to left.

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  6. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Austin Martin

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  7. B9

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  8. B9

    Clemens flied out to right.

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

    −1pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  15. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Kody Clemens

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  16. B9

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  17. B9

    Lee grounded out to third.

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

    −2pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  21. B9

    Hogan Harris pitches to Brooks Lee

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  22. B9

    H. Harris relieved Sterner

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  23. B9

    Schuemann at second base.

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  26. T9

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  27. T9

    Langeliers lined out to left.

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

    +0.7pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 2

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ATH 6·MIN 3

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

6

Runs

3

11

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

19

TB

13

1

HR

2

2

BB

1

9

K

10

15

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

MIN vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    51.7%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.4%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 22, 25sim 97
    269
    15(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 97
    309
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    303
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 96
    32
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 95
    264
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    305
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs