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Live · 4
  • MLBTop 4
    PHI 1@LAD 1
    -7.8pphigh
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    NYY 1@ATH 2
    +37.6ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    SF 0@COL 5
    +58.9pplow
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FINAL+9SF
SF

SF

53-49

9
0
ATL

ATL

44-56

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
36,433 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 9 · ATL 0 (by 9)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0400104009
ATL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Jul 22·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 9–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Wilmer Flores

Wilmer Flores

1B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF53-49
9
0
ATL44-56
SF53-49·ATL44-56
SF

SF

53-49

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000010
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-33111010
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-55221001
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-22211030
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-55121001
SPRINT28.175
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
1-33114102
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT2872
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
2-44120000
L. MatosL. Matos★RF
0-33000010
Team10-33339109266
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
5.0400160
S. HjelleS. HjelleRP
1.0200010
J. LucchesiJ. LucchesiRP
1.0100030
C. SeymourC. SeymourRP
2.0100140
Team9.08002140
ATL

ATL

44-56

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-33010012
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
3-55030001
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
0-44000003
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-33000012
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.354
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-44000002
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-44010001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-44000002
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
0-11000001
Team8-36360800214
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. DanielD. Daniel★SP
5.0755431
W. SueroW. SueroRP
2.0344221
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0000000
L. WilliamsL. WilliamsSS
1.0000010
Team9.01099662

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • L. Roupp
    87 pitches·33% CSW
    • CU
      44%·77.2 mph·26% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.1 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      6%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Seymour
    36 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      47%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      22%·86.5 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      19%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·91.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      3%·83.3 mph·— whiff
  • S. Hjelle
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      63%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      26%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Lucchesi
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      47%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      32%·93.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      21%·77.6 mph·50% whiff

ATL

  • D. Daniel
    92 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      52%·88.9 mph·6% whiff
    • FS
      22%·83.8 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      17%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.0 mph·40% whiff
  • W. Suero
    47 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      81%·92.2 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Williams
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • EP
      73%·59.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FA
      27%·78.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • CU
      83%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·95.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

8

9

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Jul 21SFSF5@ATLATL9
Jul 22SFSF9@ATLATL0today
Jul 23SFSF9@ATLATL3

Season series

SF leads series 4-1

Jun 7ATLATL4@SFSF5
Jun 7ATLATL2@SFSF3
Jun 8ATLATL3@SFSF4
Jul 21SFSF5@ATLATL9
Jul 22SFSF9@ATLATL0today
Jul 23SFSF9@ATLATL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 2nd Inning

SFSF
W. Flores

W. Flores

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1.200 OPS

D. Daniel

D. Daniel

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

How it ended

SF beat ATL 9-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 61% WP

Profar · struck out, Profar to first on wild pitch by Roupp.

SFTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 68% WP

Chapman · tripled to center, Adames scored.

ATLBottom 3rd Inning · 4-0
+7pp→ 21% WP

Profar · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0400104009
ATL0000000000

Period scoring

SF won 3 · ATL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

4
0

Inn 2

Chapman 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Adames 1

0
0

Inn 6

4
0

Inn 7

Flores 3

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SF
ATL

Play-by-play · 604 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SF 9·ATL 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  3. B9

    White struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  7. B9

    Carson Seymour pitches to Eli White

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  8. B9

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  9. B9

    Olson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  15. B9

    Carson Seymour pitches to Matt Olson

    · ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  16. B9

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  17. B9

    Profar walked.

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  23. B9

    Carson Seymour pitches to Jurickson Profar

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  24. B9

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  25. B9

    Allen struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 9·ATL 0

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

9

Runs

0

10

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

20

TB

9

2

HR

0

6

BB

2

6

K

14

14

LOB

24

Player projections

ATL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.8%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    51.3%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.6%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 97
    116
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 95
    264
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    290
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    305
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 94
    309
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    269
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872