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FINAL+1PIT
SF

SF

56-57

4
5
PIT

PIT

49-64

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
13,921 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

SF 4 · PIT 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF2000200004
PIT1000002025

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Aug 4·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off San Francisco Giants, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos

LF

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Jack Suwinski

Jack Suwinski

RF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF56-57
4
5
PIT49-64
SF56-57·PIT49-64
SF

SF

56-57

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
3-55130000
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
0-44100011
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-33100021
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-33110011
SPRINT28.175
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-44011002
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-33011010
SPRINT2872
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-44012001
SPRINT27.148
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-44000002
G. McCrayG. McCray★CF
0-44000003
Team7-34344740511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. VerlanderJ. Verlander★SP
5.0310140
C. SeymourC. SeymourRP
2.0122121
S. BivensS. BivensRP
0.2100010
R. RodríguezR. RodríguezRP
0.2122110
Team8.1654381
PIT

PIT

49-64

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT24.85
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-33000012
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-33011001
SPRINT28.586
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-44000001
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-33010011
SPRINT27.662
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
0-22100011
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
1-33212100
J. BartJ. Bart★C
1-44011001
SPRINT26.428
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-44001000
B. ReynoldsB. ReynoldsLF
0-11000001
Team6-3131565138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. OviedoJ. Oviedo★SP
1.0222330
Y. RamirezY. RamirezRP
2.2300020
K. NicolasK. NicolasRP
2.2222230
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.2000020
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
1.0000010
Team9.07445110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • J. Verlander
    100 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      23%·78.8 mph·57% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Seymour
    36 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.6 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      6%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      3%·85.2 mph·— whiff
  • R. Rodríguez
    32 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      53%·86.5 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      47%·97.7 mph·17% whiff
  • S. Bivens
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      31%·88.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      31%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.9 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • J. Oviedo
    43 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.8 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      42%·86.5 mph·36% whiff
    • CU
      12%·76.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.4 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    41 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      49%·95.6 mph·27% whiff
    • CU
      34%·83.2 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      12%·83.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      5%·95.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    36 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      72%·97.4 mph·10% whiff
    • SL
      22%·90.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Borucki
    20 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      55%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.9 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      5%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Moreta
    10 pitches·70% CSW
    • SL
      80%·83.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

4

Runs

5

2

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Aug 4SFSF4@PITPIT5today
Aug 5SFSF8@PITPIT1
Aug 6SFSF4@PITPIT2

Season series

PIT leads series 4-0

Jul 29PITPIT6@SFSF5
Jul 30PITPIT3@SFSF1
Jul 30PITPIT2@SFSF1
Aug 4SFSF4@PITPIT5today
Aug 5SFSF8@PITPIT1
Aug 6SFSF4@PITPIT2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 74pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SFSF
H. Ramos

H. Ramos

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

J. Verlander

J. Verlander

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
J. Suwinski

J. Suwinski

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

K. Nicolas

K. Nicolas

RP

Top reliever

2.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat SF 5-4. Bart's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (74pp).

Win probability

PIT vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 5th Inning · 4-1
+18pp→ 87% WP

Lee · tripled to right, Adames scored and Chapman scored.

PITBottom 7th Inning · 4-3
+15pp→ 28% WP

Suwinski · homered to right (371 feet), Peguero scored.

PITBottom 9th Inning · 4-4
+74pp→ 100% WP

Bart · singled to left, Canario scored, Suwinski to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF2000200004
PIT1000002025

Period scoring

SF won 2 · PIT won 2

2
1

Inn 1

Smith 1

Gonzales 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Lee 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
2

Inn 7

Suwinski 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Bart 1

SF
PIT

Play-by-play · 615 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 5

  2. B9

    Kiner-Falefa grounded into fielder's choice to first, Suwinski scored, Davis third.

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 5

  3. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  7. B9

    Davis to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  8. B9

    Davis to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  11. B9

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Isiah Kiner-Falefa

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 5

  12. B9

    Davis ran for Bart

    ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  13. B9

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  14. B9

    Bart singled to left, Canario scored, Suwinski to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

    +74pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  16. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  22. B9

    Randy Rodriguez pitches to Joey Bart

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 4

  23. B9

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  24. B9

    Suwinski hit by pitch, Canario to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

    +10pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·PIT 3

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

4

Runs

5

7

Hits

6

2

Errors

0

9

TB

10

0

HR

1

5

BB

3

11

K

8

20

LOB

11

Player projections

PIT vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.9%

ensemble · PIT favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.8%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 98
    268
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 97
    242
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 96
    309
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    296
    11(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    305
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    264
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872