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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TB
TB

TB

57-59

5
4
LAA

LAA

55-60

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
22,064 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 5 · LAA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB2110001005
LAA0040000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 99
    32
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 97
    301
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 14, 25sim 96
    308
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    307
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 96
    309
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 96
    264
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/SeriesTB wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Junior Caminero

Junior Caminero

3B

2.500OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Mike Trout

Mike Trout

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB57-59
5
4
LAA55-60
TB57-59·LAA55-60
TB

TB

57-59

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-55110001
SPRINT29.496
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-44000001
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
2-44223201
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.148
H. KimH. Kim★SS
0-44000003
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-33010000
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-22000020
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
1-44111103
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44111101
SPRINT26.225
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11000000
Team8-35355854211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. BazS. Baz★SP
4.0544291
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.0000010
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.0000110
B. BakerB. BakerRP
1.0000010
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0100130
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0000010
Team9.06444161
LAA

LAA

55-60

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
0-44000012
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-55111001
SPRINT25.920
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
2-44123102
SPRINT28.688
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33000011
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-22000010
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-44000003
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT27.148
C. MooreC. Moore★2B
0-33100013
B. TeodosioB. Teodosio★LF
1-33010002
SPRINT29.395
T. d'ArnaudT. d'ArnaudC
0-11000001
Team6-33334641416
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. AndersonT. Anderson★SP
4.0544153
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.0000000
B. BurkeB. BurkeRP
1.0100020
R. ZeferjahnR. ZeferjahnRP
1.0111021
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
1.0100010
K. JansenK. JansenRP
1.0000110
Team9.08552114

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • S. Baz
    81 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      59%·97.9 mph·18% whiff
    • KC
      30%·86.2 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      11%·93.1 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Jax
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      60%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      24%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·96.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·92.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Baker
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      44%·97.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      31%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      36%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      54%·93.1 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      31%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      58%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.9 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·98.2 mph·100% whiff

LAA

  • T. Anderson
    69 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      39%·89.4 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      38%·78.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      17%·84.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      4%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      1%·68.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Burke
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      67%·89.8 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·98.3 mph·25% whiff
  • K. Jansen
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FC
      95%·93.1 mph·36% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      35%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Detmers
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.9 mph·71% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·74.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Zeferjahn
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • FC
      45%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      36%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

6

5

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

TB wins series 2-1

Aug 5TBTB1@LAALAA5
Aug 6TBTB7@LAALAA3
Aug 6TBTB5@LAALAA4today

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 8LAALAA4@TBTB3
Apr 9LAALAA4@TBTB5
Apr 10LAALAA11@TBTB1
Aug 5TBTB1@LAALAA5
Aug 6TBTB7@LAALAA3
Aug 6TBTB5@LAALAA4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

TBTB
J. Caminero

J. Caminero

3B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Baz

S. Baz

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 9 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
M. Trout

M. Trout

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Anderson

T. Anderson

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TB beat LAA 5-4. Trout's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
LAABottom 3rd Inning · 4-4
+28pp→ 50% WP

Trout · homered to left (433 feet), Moore scored and Schanuel scored.

TBTop 7th Inning · 5-4
+19pp→ 73% WP

Morel · homered to left (424 feet).

TBBottom 8th Inning · 5-4
+19pp→ 67% WP

Rengifo · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB2110001005
LAA0040000004

Period scoring

TB won 3 · LAA won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Caminero 2

1
0

Inn 2

Fortes 1

1
4

Inn 3

Caminero 1

Trout 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Morel 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TB
LAA

Play-by-play · 597 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 5·LAA 4

  2. B9

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  3. B9

    Schanuel flied out to right.

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  7. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Nolan Schanuel

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  8. B9

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  9. B9

    Neto lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

    −7pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  15. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Zach Neto

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  16. B9

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  17. B9

    d'Arnaud struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

    −7pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  24. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Travis d'Arnaud

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  25. B9

    Fairbanks relieved Jax

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  26. B9

    d'Arnaud hit for Teodosio

    ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TB 5·LAA 4

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TB 5·LAA 4

  29. T9

    · ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

  30. T9

    Simpson flied out to left.

    · ·

    TB 5·LAA 4

    +3pp

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

5

Runs

4

8

Hits

6

1

Errors

1

22

TB

9

4

HR

1

2

BB

4

11

K

16

11

LOB

23

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

LAA vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Reid DetmersLAA
    2.9± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · LAA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.1%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.5%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.9%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.