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  • MLBBot 1
    SF 0@COL 0
    +6.0ppmedium
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    -43.1pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CLE
TB

TB

64-69

3
4
CLE

CLE

66-66

Progressive Field · Cleveland, Ohio
23,316 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

TB 3 · CLE 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CLE +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
TB01200000003
CLE01001000114

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 27·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians held off Tampa Bay Rays, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

CLE · top performer

CLE
Nolan Jones

Nolan Jones

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
TB64-69
3
4
CLE66-66
TB64-69·CLE66-66
TB

TB

64-69

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-55000002
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
2-33120010
SPRINT25.716
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-33112110
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000003
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.251
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
1-44011002
SPRINT27.457
J. MangumJ. Mangum★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT2993
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
0-44000002
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-22000000
N. FortesN. FortesC
0-22000001
Team7-35353731210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
6.0422150
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
0.2200010
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
1.1000120
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0111021
G. JaxG. JaxRP
0.2110110
Team9.28433111
CLE

CLE

66-66

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-33011020
SPRINT26.530
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-55000002
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-55011001
SPRINT25.411
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
0-44000003
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-33110012
SPRINT26.530
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
2-44121101
W. WilsonW. Wilson★3B
3-44131000
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33100001
A. HedgesA. Hedges★C
0-22000001
B. NaylorB. NaylorC
0-11000000
Team8-34344841311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
6.0633041
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.0000020
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
0.2000220
N. EnrightN. EnrightRP
1.1100010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000010
Team10.07332101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    85 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.7 mph·16% whiff
    • FC
      27%·90.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      22%·95.4 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      5%·89.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      4%·80.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      1%·84.2 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      44%·86.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.7 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.4 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·81.2 mph·50% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • CH
      56%·87.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      31%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.3 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      54%·84.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      38%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·95.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Jax
    9 pitches·67% CSW
    • ST
      56%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·92.8 mph·— whiff

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    99 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.7 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      19%·84.9 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      10%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      1%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      73%·95.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.8 mph·50% whiff
  • N. Enright
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SL
      53%·85.0 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      42%·93.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      5%·84.3 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • ST
      71%·83.7 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Smith
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      71%·96.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      29%·87.9 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 2-1

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4today

Season series

CLE leads series 2-1

Aug 25TBTB9@CLECLE0
Aug 26TBTB0@CLECLE3
Aug 27TBTB3@CLECLE4today
Sep 4CLECLE2@TBTB4
Sep 5CLECLE7@TBTB1
Sep 6CLECLE3@TBTB2
Sep 7CLECLE2@TBTB1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 47pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TBTB
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

CLECLE
N. Jones

N. Jones

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

CLE beat TB 4-3. Jones's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (47pp).

Win probability

CLE vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 3rd Inning · 3-1
+17pp→ 81% WP

B. Lowe · homered to right center (416 feet), Díaz scored.

CLEBottom 9th Inning · 3-3
+47pp→ 56% WP

Jones · homered to right center (428 feet).

CLEBottom 10th Inning · 3-4
+37pp→ 100% WP

Manzardo · singled to center, Martínez scored, Kwan to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
TB01200000003
CLE01001000114

Period scoring

TB won 1 · CLE won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Pereira 1

Wilson 1

2
0

Inn 3

Lowe 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Kwan 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

Jones 1

0
1

Inn 10

Manzardo 1

TB
CLE

Play-by-play · 594 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 4

  2. B10

    Manzardo singled to center, Martínez scored, Kwan to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 4

    +37pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 4

  4. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  5. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  6. B10

    Griffin Jax pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 4

  7. B10

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  8. B10

    Rocchio struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

    −18pp

  9. B10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  10. B10

    Kwan to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  11. B10

    Kwan to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  12. B10

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  13. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  14. B10

    Griffin Jax pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  15. B10

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  16. B10

    Kwan intentionally walked.

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  17. B10

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  18. B10

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  19. B10

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  20. B10

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  21. B10

    Griffin Jax pitches to Steven Kwan

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  22. B10

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  23. B10

    Naylor hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Martínez to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

    +14pp

  24. B10

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  25. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  26. B10

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  27. B10

    Griffin Jax pitches to Bo Naylor

    ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  28. B10

    Jax relieved Fairbanks

    ·

    TB 3·CLE 3

  29. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    TB 3·CLE 3

  30. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    TB 3·CLE 3

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

3

Runs

4

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

12

TB

11

1

HR

1

2

BB

3

10

K

11

10

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

CLE vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    52.4%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.5%

    P(CLE win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.8%

    P(CLE win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 25, 25sim 97
    309
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 97
    300
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 25, 25sim 97
    243
    26(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 24, 25sim 96
    213
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    116
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    264
    23(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs