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    PHI 1@LAD 1
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    NYY 1@ATH 2
    +37.6ppmedium
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FINAL+7NYM
NYM

NYM

67-58

8
1
WSH

WSH

50-75

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
23,989 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 8 · WSH 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0050011018
WSH0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 69-50
61%Last 30 · 332-209
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 19·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil

2B

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Andres Chaparro

Andres Chaparro

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM67-58
8
1
WSH50-75
NYM67-58·WSH50-75
NYM

NYM

67-58

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-55110003
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-44211111
SPRINT25.513
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-44121010
SPRINT28.278
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-55000001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
3-44233110
SPRINT25.920
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44112110
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-33111110
SPRINT26.735
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-44010000
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-44010001
Team11-37378118456
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
8.04111100
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0100000
Team9.05111100
WSH

WSH

50-75

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000003
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000000
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
1-44010003
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-44000000
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33000002
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-33110000
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
2-22020010
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000001
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.496
Team5-30301500110
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
6.0866332
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
1.0111211
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0100020
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0111001
Team9.01188564

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    96 pitches·41% CSW
    • SI
      35%·91.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      21%·84.4 mph·58% whiff
    • FF
      16%·91.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      15%·78.9 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.7 mph·33% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      25%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·88.7 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    101 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      38%·91.8 mph·6% whiff
    • CU
      27%·78.2 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      26%·91.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    25 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      64%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      16%·86.0 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      30%·85.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·84.8 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      5%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • ST
      42%·79.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      25%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·81.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      17%·88.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

8

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 4-3

Apr 25NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Apr 26NYMNYM2@WSHWSH0
Apr 27NYMNYM7@WSHWSH8
Apr 28NYMNYM19@WSHWSH5
Aug 19NYMNYM8@WSHWSH1today
Aug 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Aug 21NYMNYM3@WSHWSH9

Season series

NYM lead series 6-2

Apr 25NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Apr 26NYMNYM2@WSHWSH0
Apr 27NYMNYM7@WSHWSH8
Apr 28NYMNYM19@WSHWSH5
Jun 10WSHWSH4@NYMNYM5
Jun 11WSHWSH0@NYMNYM5
Jun 12WSHWSH3@NYMNYM4
Aug 19NYMNYM8@WSHWSH1today
Aug 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Aug 21NYMNYM3@WSHWSH9
Sep 19WSHWSH6@NYMNYM12
Sep 20WSHWSH5@NYMNYM3
Sep 21WSHWSH3@NYMNYM2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 3rd Inning

NYMNYM
J. McNeil

J. McNeil

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
A. Chaparro

A. Chaparro

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYM beat WSH 8-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 44% WP

Vientos · grounded into double play, third to second to first, McNeil out at second.

NYMTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 85% WP

McNeil · doubled to right, J. Soto scored and Nimmo scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0050011018
WSH0000000101

Period scoring

NYM won 4 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

5
0

Inn 3

McNeil 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Baty 1

1
0

Inn 7

Soto 1

0
1

Inn 8

House 1

1
0

Inn 9

McNeil 1

NYM
WSH

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  3. B9

    Bell fouled out to third.

    · ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  8. B9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Josh Bell

    · ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  9. B9

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  10. B9

    DeJong singled to center.

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  15. B9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to Paul DeJong

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  16. B9

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  17. B9

    Abrams flied out to left.

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  21. B9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  22. B9

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  23. B9

    Wood grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  25. B9

    Ryne Stanek pitches to James Wood

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  26. B9

    Stanek relieved Peterson

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  29. T9

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

  30. T9

    Vientos grounded out to second.

    ·

    NYM 8·WSH 1

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

8

Runs

1

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

26

TB

8

4

HR

0

5

BB

1

6

K

10

15

LOB

8

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    46.1%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.3%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.9%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 20, 25sim 97
    214
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 97
    213
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 94
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 94
    301
    26(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 93
    258
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 93
    307
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872