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FINAL+6ATL
MIA

MIA

57-61

1
7
ATL

ATL

51-67

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
31,203 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

MIA 1 · ATL 7 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0100000001
ATL000120407

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesATL wins series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Miami Marlins, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Derek Hill

Derek Hill

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA57-61
1
7
ATL51-67
MIA57-61·ATL51-67
MIA

MIA

57-61

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
2-44020000
SPRINT2872
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-44000002
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-22000011
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
0-44000000
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
1-33010010
SPRINT2744
E. WagamanE. Wagaman★1B
0-44000001
D. HillD. Hill★RF
1-11110010
SPRINT29.294
L. HicksL. Hicks★C
2-44021000
SPRINT25.614
J. SanojaJ. Sanoja★3B
0-44000000
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
0-11000000
J. MarseeJ. MarseeCF
0-22000000
Team6-3333161034
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. QuantrillC. Quantrill★RP
4.0311011
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
1.2222330
T. ZuberT. ZuberRP
0.2444012
L. BacharL. BacharRP
0.2000010
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000010
Team8.0977373
ATL

ATL

51-67

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
2-55221000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-33221110
SPRINT25.513
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-33113110
SPRINT25.614
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-44000001
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44121101
SPRINT27.148
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44010000
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-44000002
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-22110010
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-44000003
Team9-3333796337
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. WentzJ. Wentz★RP
5.1411320
D. HernandezD. HernandezRP
0.2000000
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0100010
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
1.0000000
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0100010
Team9.0611340

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • T. Phillips
    51 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      39%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      18%·83.7 mph·75% whiff
    • FS
      8%·87.7 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      2%·96.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Quantrill
    47 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      38%·93.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      26%·88.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      13%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·93.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Zuber
    27 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      33%·88.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.0 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      19%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • ST
      55%·87.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      18%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.8 mph·— whiff
  • L. Bachar
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·87.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      10%·83.8 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • J. Wentz
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      45%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·85.3 mph·21% whiff
    • CU
      11%·80.2 mph·20% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    17 pitches·53% CSW
    • SL
      71%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·85.5 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Johnson
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      73%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
  • D. Hernandez
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      73%·87.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

9

1

Runs

7

0

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 5-2

Apr 4MIAMIA0@ATLATL10
Apr 5MIAMIA4@ATLATL0
Apr 6MIAMIA0@ATLATL0
Aug 7MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 8MIAMIA5@ATLATL1
Aug 9MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 9MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 10MIAMIA1@ATLATL7today

Season series

ATL leads series 6-4

Apr 4MIAMIA0@ATLATL10
Apr 5MIAMIA4@ATLATL0
Apr 6MIAMIA0@ATLATL0
Jun 20ATLATL2@MIAMIA6
Jun 21ATLATL7@MIAMIA0
Jun 22ATLATL3@MIAMIA5
Aug 7MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 8MIAMIA5@ATLATL1
Aug 9MIAMIA1@ATLATL7
Aug 9MIAMIA6@ATLATL8
Aug 10MIAMIA1@ATLATL7today
Aug 25ATLATL1@MIAMIA2
Aug 26ATLATL11@MIAMIA2
Aug 27ATLATL12@MIAMIA1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

MIAMIA
D. Hill

D. Hill

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Quantrill

C. Quantrill

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 1 K · 1 ER · 3 H

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Wentz

J. Wentz

RP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat MIA 7-1.

Win probability

ATL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 49% WP

Hicks · singled to right, Hill scored on error, Hicks to second, Hicks safe at third on throwing error by catcher Murphy.

ATLBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+13pp→ 65% WP

Olson · homered to right center (419 feet).

ATLBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+15pp→ 76% WP

Profar · doubled to right, Alvarez Jr. scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0100000001
ATL00012040—7

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · ATL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Hicks 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Olson 1

0
2

Inn 5

Profar 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
4

Inn 7

Ozuna 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

MIA
ATL

Play-by-play · 567 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  2. T9

    Sanoja lined out to left.

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  6. T9

    Hicks to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  7. T9

    Hicks to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  9. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Javier Sanoja

    · ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  10. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  11. T9

    Hicks singled to right.

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  17. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Liam Hicks

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  18. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  19. T9

    Marsee grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  22. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  23. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  24. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  25. T9

    Tyler Kinley pitches to Jakob Marsee

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  26. T9

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  27. T9

    Wagaman struck out looking.

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 1·ATL 7

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

1

Runs

7

6

Hits

9

0

Errors

1

8

TB

21

0

HR

3

3

BB

3

4

K

7

14

LOB

9

Player projections

ATL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    1.8± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    46.5%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.0%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 7, 25sim 96
    170
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 95
    114
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 95
    186
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 23, 25sim 94
    61
    23(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 94
    285
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 94
    281
    15(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs