HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +8.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 3@CIN 2
    -51.2pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4HOU
HOU

HOU

81-68

6
2
ATL

ATL

65-83

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
36,826 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

HOU

league avg

ATL

ATL

.730

OPS

.715

▶

.751

.320

OBP

.319

.323

4.56

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

4.88

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.28

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 6 · ATL 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0330000006
ATL0001001002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 13·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 6–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. ElderATL−35.4pp
  2. 2J. MeyersHOU+23.7pp
  3. 3C. WalkerHOU+22.3pp

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Matt Olson

Matt Olson

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaSS
.2995012000
Y. AlvarezDH
.2674000013
C. CorreaSS
.2933110021
J. Altuve2B
.2642010000
J. SanchezRF
.2055101002
C. Walker1B
.2384222101
J. MeyersCF
.3083120010
Y. DiazC
.2594131001
Z. ColeLF
.4293000012
- R. Urias3B
.2413000001
Team3661061511

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
H. BrownSP
6.242212108
E. De Los SantosRP
1.02000223
B. KingRP
1.10000122
Team9.062215153

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarLF
.2604020000
M. Olson1B
.2714221100
R. Acuna Jr.RF
.2754010001
D. BaldwinC
.2634000000
O. Albies2B
.2383000010
H. KimSS
.2353011000
M. Harris IICF
.2393000002
M. OzunaDH
.2283000002
N. Alvarez Jr.SS
.2383000000
Team31262115

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. ElderSP
4.110663789
D. DoddRP
3.20002453
T. KinleyRP
1.00000012
Team9.01066511154

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • H. Brown
    108 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      37%·95.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      30%·94.9 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      14%·82.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      61%·96.3 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.2 mph·50% whiff
  • B. King
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      41%·91.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      9%·81.4 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    89 pitches·34% CSW
    • SL
      40%·83.4 mph·59% whiff
    • SI
      37%·91.9 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      12%·93.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    53 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      45%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      40%·93.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      11%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·87.5 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kinley
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      100%·87.9 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

6

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Sep 12HOUHOU11@ATLATL3
Sep 13HOUHOU6@ATLATL2today
Sep 14HOUHOU3@ATLATL8

Season series

HOU leads series 2-0

Sep 12HOUHOU11@ATLATL3
Sep 13HOUHOU6@ATLATL2today
Sep 14HOUHOU3@ATLATL8

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 2nd Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

H. Brown

H. Brown

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
M. Olson

M. Olson

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 7 K · 6 ER · 10 H · 3 BB

How it ended

HOU beat ATL 6-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 59% WP

Olson · flied out to left.

HOUTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+15pp→ 84% WP

Peña doubled to left, Diaz scored and Meyers scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0330000006
ATL0001001002

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · ATL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Diaz 1

3
0

Inn 3

Walker 2

0
1

Inn 4

Olson 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Kim 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

HOU
ATL

Play-by-play · 577 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  3. B9

    Albies grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  11. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Ozzie Albies

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  12. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  13. B9

    Baldwin grounded out to second.

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

    −0.5pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  16. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Drake Baldwin

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  17. B9

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  18. B9

    Acuña Jr. struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

    −1pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  27. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Ronald Acuna Jr.

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 6·ATL 2

  30. T9

    ·

    HOU 6·ATL 2

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

6

Runs

2

10

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

15

TB

10

1

HR

1

5

BB

1

11

K

5

17

LOB

6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

ATL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.4± 2.1low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.1± 3.1low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.3± 2.5low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.1± 1.8high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    1.8± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Mauricio DubonATL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.7± 2.8low
  • JR RitchieATL
    2.6± 2.0low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.5± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    47.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.4%

    P(ATL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.8%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.