HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 12
  • MLBEnd 6
    ARI 2@CIN 2
    -6.5pppeak
  • MLBTop 9
    DET 2@CLE 3
    +39.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    NYY 5@TOR 7
    +63.0pplow
  • MLBTop 4
    STL 3@MIN 1
    -39.7pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    SD 3@BAL 7
    +50.3pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ATL 2@NYM 6
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -48.3pplow
  • MLBTop 2
    SEA 5@WSH 0
    -47.4pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    TEX 1@BOS 7
    +51.9pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    LAD 2@CHW 8
    +53.3pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    PHI 0@MIL 6
    +40.0pplow
  • WNBA1:51 - 4th
    TOR 76@WSH 81
    +27.6pppeak
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5PHI
BAL

BAL

51-63

0
5
PHI

PHI

65-48

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,660 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

BAL

league avg

PHI

PHI

.727

OPS

◀

.715

.684

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.55

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.05

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

BAL 0 · PHI 5 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL0000000000
PHI030100015

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

67%Last 7 · 65-32
61%Last 30 · 303-190
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Baltimore Orioles, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1D. KremerBAL−25.8pp
  2. 2B. MarshPHI+24.5pp
  3. 3M. KeplerPHI+21.1pp

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jordan Westburg

Jordan Westburg

3B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh

LF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. Holliday2B
.2544000001
J. Westburg3B
.2773020000
G. HendersonSS
.2834000002
A. RutschmanC
.2344010000
T. O'NeillRF
.2102000000
C. CowserRF
.2123000002
J. Jackson2B
.2673010002
C. Mayo3B
.2123010001
D. CarlsonLF
.1973000001
- R. Noda1B
.2502000001
Team310500010

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
D. KremerSP
6.084416103
G. WolframRP
1.01000220
Y. HiraldoRP
1.01110115
Team8.0105519138

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerSS
.2804010001
K. SchwarberDH
.2583010011
B. Harper1B
.2664000001
J.T. RealmutoC
.2674010000
N. CastellanosRF
.2694110001
B. MarshLF
.2674222101
M. KeplerLF
.2044222100
E. Sosa2B
.2683000003
B. Stott2B
.2353021001
Team335105219

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
T. WalkerSP
6.04000483
O. KerkeringRP
1.00000217
M. StrahmRP
1.00000211
M. LazarRP
1.01000211
Team9.0500010122

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • D. Kremer
    103 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      25%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      23%·82.2 mph·59% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.8 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      10%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      60%·87.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      10%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      5%·97.7 mph·— whiff
  • Y. Hiraldo
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      53%·95.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      13%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • T. Walker
    83 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      41%·87.4 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      18%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·88.2 mph·18% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      6%·76.3 mph·100% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • ST
      53%·87.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      41%·98.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      36%·93.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.9 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.9 mph·— whiff
  • M. Lazar
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      64%·95.9 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      27%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      9%·87.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

10

0

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Aug 4BALBAL3@PHIPHI13
Aug 5BALBAL0@PHIPHI5today
Aug 6BALBAL5@PHIPHI1

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

Aug 4BALBAL3@PHIPHI13
Aug 5BALBAL0@PHIPHI5today
Aug 6BALBAL5@PHIPHI1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

BALBAL
J. Westburg

J. Westburg

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

D. Kremer

D. Kremer

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
B. Marsh

B. Marsh

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

PHI beat BAL 5-0.

Win probability

PHI vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 2nd Inning · 0-3
+13pp→ 84% WP

Kepler · homered to right center (371 feet), Marsh scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL0000000000
PHI03010001—5

Period scoring

BAL won 0 · PHI won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Kepler 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Stott 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Marsh 1

0

Inn 9

BAL
PHI

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  2. T9

    Noda struck out looking.

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  6. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Ryan Noda

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  7. T9

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  8. T9

    Rutschman grounded out to second, Westburg to second.

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  11. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Adley Rutschman

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  12. T9

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  13. T9

    Henderson struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

    +0.9pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  19. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    · ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  20. T9

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  21. T9

    Westburg singled to left.

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

    −0.8pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  23. T9

    Max Lazar pitches to Jordan Westburg

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  24. T9

    Lazar relieved Strahm

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  27. B8

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  28. B8

    Kepler fouled out to third.

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 0·PHI 5

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

0

Runs

5

5

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

5

TB

20

0

HR

2

0

BB

1

10

K

9

9

LOB

8

Player projections

PHI vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    8.1± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.0± 3.3low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.9± 2.4low

Hits

  • Taylor WardBAL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Brandon MarshPHI
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Brandon MarshPHI
    2.2± 2.2high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Alec BohmPHI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.4low
  • Aaron NolaPHI
    3.5± 2.6low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    60.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.6%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.5%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Edmundo SosaPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · RF
    SPRINT28.175