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FINAL+11MIL
MIL

MIL

67-44

14
3
WSH

WSH

44-67

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
20,066 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 14 · WSH 3 (by 11)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL12000272014
WSH0000100023

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 2, 25sim 91
    88
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 88
    165
    4(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 88
    816
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 86
    85
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 85
    87
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 83
    144
    1(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 3·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 14–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Caleb Durbin

Caleb Durbin

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Riley Adams

Riley Adams

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL67-44
14
3
WSH44-67
MIL67-44·WSH44-67
MIL

MIL

67-44

14
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
2-66224202
SPRINT28.586
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
1-55110001
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
2-55020000
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
2-33221031
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-55220011
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
0-44200021
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
0-11000011
B. LockridgeB. Lockridge★LF
2-44223001
SPRINT29.294
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
2-44124011
SPRINT28.790
D. JansenD. JansenC
0-11000001
A. MonasterioA. MonasterioSS
1-11010000
C. DurbinC. Durbin3B
2-22221000
SPRINT28.175
Team16-41411416132810
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. HendersonL. Henderson★SP
4.1311240
A. AshbyA. AshbyRP
1.2100030
D. HallD. HallRP
2.1322120
G. AndersonG. AndersonRP
0.2000100
Team9.0733490
WSH

WSH

44-67

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000001
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33000012
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-22000010
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44120002
SPRINT29.395
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-44000001
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
0-33000011
D. MillasD. Millas★C
2-44122001
SPRINT27.354
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33011010
SPRINT29.496
B. HouseB. House3B
0-11000000
R. AdamsR. AdamsC
1-11110000
Team7-3333373049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. LordB. Lord★RP
4.2633261
K. PilkingtonK. PilkingtonRP
0.1221100
C. HenryC. HenryRP
1.0000100
Z. BrzykcyZ. BrzykcyRP
0.1366200
R. LoutosR. LoutosRP
0.2111001
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0322120
A. LaraA. LaraSP
1.0100120
Team9.01614138102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • L. Henderson
    76 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      46%·92.6 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      34%·82.0 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      3%·82.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Hall
    47 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      28%·94.0 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·92.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    23 pitches·48% CSW
    • SI
      78%·96.6 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      9%·91.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      9%·82.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • ST
      57%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·92.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·93.5 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • B. Lord
    92 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.6 mph·24% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
  • Z. Brzykcy
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      61%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      22%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Lara
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      32%·94.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.9 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Pilkington
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      76%·93.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·85.0 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Henry
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • ST
      41%·79.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Loutos
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·87.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      18%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

16

Hits

7

14

Runs

3

0

Errors

2

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Aug 1MILMIL16@WSHWSH9
Aug 2MILMIL8@WSHWSH2
Aug 3MILMIL14@WSHWSH3today

Season series

MIL wins series 6-0

Jul 12WSHWSH3@MILMIL8
Jul 12WSHWSH5@MILMIL6
Jul 13WSHWSH1@MILMIL8
Aug 1MILMIL16@WSHWSH9
Aug 2MILMIL8@WSHWSH2
Aug 3MILMIL14@WSHWSH3today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 2nd Inning

MILMIL
A. Monasterio

A. Monasterio

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

L. Henderson

L. Henderson

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
R. Adams

R. Adams

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat WSH 14-3.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 67% WP

Yelich · singled to center, Contreras scored, Vaughn to third.

MILTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+17pp→ 78% WP

Turang · homered to right center (399 feet), Lockridge scored.

WSHBottom 5th Inning · 3-1
+9pp→ 26% WP

Young · singled to left, Millas scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL12000272014
WSH0000100023

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

14

Runs

3

16

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

24

TB

10

2

HR

0

8

BB

4

10

K

9

21

LOB

14

Win probability

WSH vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

MIL won 5 · WSH won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Yelich 1

2
0

Inn 2

Turang 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Young 1

2
0

Inn 6

Lockridge 1

7
0

Inn 7

Lockridge 2

2
0

Inn 8

Ortiz 2

0
2

Inn 9

Millas 2

MIL
WSH

Play-by-play · 678 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  3. B9

    House grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Young out at second.

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  7. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Brady House

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  8. B9

    House hit for Abrams

    ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  9. B9

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  10. B9

    Young walked.

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  15. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  16. B9

    Anderson relieved Hall

    ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  17. B9

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  18. B9

    Millas doubled to left, Adams scored and Lile scored, Hassell III to third.

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  23. B9

    DL Hall pitches to Drew Millas

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 3

  24. B9

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  25. B9

    Hassell III walked, Lile to second, Adams to third.

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

  30. B9

    DL Hall pitches to Robert Hassell III

    · ·

    MIL 14·WSH 1

Player projections

WSH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.4± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    34.3%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    31.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brady HouseWSH · 3B
    SPRINT2872