MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7CHW

CHC

60-43

512

CHW

38-66

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

38,762 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.1%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
39.4%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.9%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.1%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.3± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.3± 3.7low
Sean BurkeCHW
5.2± 2.8low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.3± 1.1high
Michael BuschCHC
1.1± 0.6high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.4high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.5± 2.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 3.0high
Ian HappCHC
1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

Miguel VargasCHW
0.8± 1.4high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.6± 1.3high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.2± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 4.0low
Colin ReaCHC
3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

CHW

.721

OPS

.715

▶

.742

.331

OBP

.319

.329

4.53

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.79

4.29

Team ERA

4.16

4.25

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHC 5 · CHW 12 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	5
CHW	3	2	0	4	2	0	0	1	12

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
M. Busch1B	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.275	4	0	1	1	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.254	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.268	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
I. HappLF	.224	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. SwansonSS	.253	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Hoerner2B	.286	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. McGuireC	.243	4	1	3	4	1	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.227	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
J. Berti3B	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ShawRF	.225	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Turner1B	.208	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	9	5	1	4	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.280

.275

.254

.268

.224

.253

.286

.243

.227

.214

.225

.208

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. ImanagaSP	3.0	12	7	7	0	2	85
C. FlexenRP	2.0	5	4	2	0	2	47
D. PomeranzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	18
R. BrasierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	19
J. Berti3B	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	16
Team	8.0	18	12	10	1	8	185

Player

3.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

185

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. Meidroth2B	.256	5	3	3	1	1	0	0
A. SlaterRF	.243	5	3	2	1	1	0	1
E. QueroC	.277	5	2	4	1	0	0	1
A. BenintendiDH	.235	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. Vargas3B	.229	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
L. Sosa2B	.267	4	0	2	3	0	0	0
M. TauchmanRF	.283	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
M. TaylorRF	.220	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. MontgomerySS	.273	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.173	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. BaldwinLF	.217	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		42	12	18	12	4	1	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. HouserSP	6.2	5	3	3	3	3	83
T. GilbertRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	15
S. WilsonRP	1.0	4	2	2	1	1	28
Team	9.0	9	5	5	4	4	126

Team

CHC

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs CHC.

3 sub-models, blended.