HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBEnd 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -12.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5MIL
MIL

MIL

69-44

7
2
ATL

ATL

47-65

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
30,642 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

MIL

league avg

ATL

ATL

.730

OPS

.715

▶

.750

.340

OBP

◀

.319

.323

5.34

Runs / G

◀

4.50

5.12

3.42

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.28

1.21

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

9.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 7 · ATL 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0040012007
ATL0001001002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Aug 5·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 7–2.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. WentzATL−32.2pp
  2. 2C. YelichMIL+30.6pp
  3. 3A. VaughnMIL+21.6pp

MIL · top performer

MIL
Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz

SS

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Eli White

Eli White

CF

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. Durbin3B
.2624100011
W. ContrerasC
.2545000002
C. YelichDH
.2604211011
A. Vaughn1B
.3703012011
I. CollinsLF
.2854122001
B. Turang2B
.2764011000
B. PerkinsCF
.2454110000
D. JansenC
.1004000001
J. OrtizSS
.2203220010
Team35786047

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
F. PeraltaSP
5.041137108
N. MearsRP
1.02001121
A. AshbyRP
2.01113238
G. AndersonRP
1.01001119
Team9.0822811186

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarLF
.2374010011
M. Olson1B
.2594010011
D. BaldwinC
.2824120011
S. MurphyC
.2204000012
M. Harris IICF
.2365010003
O. Albies2B
.2244000011
E. WhiteCF
.2544122110
N. Alvarez Jr.SS
.2223010012
N. AllenSS
.2242000000
- M. OzunaDH
.2330000010
- L. WilliamsSS
.1151000000
Team352821811

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. WentzRP
5.17551396
T. KinleyRP
1.10111326
A. CoxRP
2.11112151
Team9.087747173

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • F. Peralta
    108 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.7 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.7 mph·60% whiff
    • CU
      19%·78.4 mph·43% whiff
    • CS
      2%·73.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      1%·83.4 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Ashby
    38 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      71%·97.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      21%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.8 mph·— whiff
  • N. Mears
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      52%·86.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      43%·95.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·84.0 mph·100% whiff
  • G. Anderson
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      63%·94.4 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      16%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.7 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • J. Wentz
    96 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      34%·85.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      16%·79.6 mph·43% whiff
  • A. Cox
    51 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      43%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      16%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      14%·80.8 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    26 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      62%·86.6 mph·71% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      12%·83.5 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

7

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Aug 4MILMIL3@ATLATL1
Aug 5MILMIL7@ATLATL2today
Aug 6MILMIL5@ATLATL4

Season series

MIL leads series 3-2

Jun 9ATLATL7@MILMIL1
Jun 10ATLATL1@MILMIL4
Jun 11ATLATL6@MILMIL2
Aug 4MILMIL3@ATLATL1
Aug 5MILMIL7@ATLATL2today
Aug 6MILMIL5@ATLATL4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 3rd Inning

MILMIL
J. Ortiz

J. Ortiz

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

F. Peralta

F. Peralta

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

ATLATL
E. White

E. White

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J. Wentz

J. Wentz

RP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat ATL 7-2. Vaughn's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 64% WP

Ortiz · reached on infield single to shortstop, Perkins to third.

MILTop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+19pp→ 89% WP

Vaughn · singled to left, Durbin scored and Yelich scored.

MILBottom 6th Inning · 5-1
+6pp→ 95% WP

Profar · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0040012007
ATL0001001002

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · ATL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

4
0

Inn 3

Vaughn 3

0
1

Inn 4

White 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Turang 1

2
1

Inn 7

Collins 2

White 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIL
ATL

Play-by-play · 659 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  3. B9

    White grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  7. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Eli White

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  8. B9

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  9. B9

    Albies walked.

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  16. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Ozzie Albies

    · ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  17. B9

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  18. B9

    Harris II doubled to right.

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  25. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  26. B9

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  27. B9

    Murphy grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  29. B9

    Grant Anderson pitches to Sean Murphy

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

  30. B9

    ·

    MIL 7·ATL 2

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

7

Runs

2

8

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

10

TB

13

0

HR

1

4

BB

8

7

K

11

14

LOB

25

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ATL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    8.8± 2.6low
  • Chris SaleATL
    7.4± 2.1low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.3± 5.5low

Hits

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    1.5± 1.2high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.4± 1.4high
  • Christian YelichMIL
    1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    2.9± 2.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Brice TurangMIL
    2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Jackson ChourioMIL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Brice TurangMIL
    0.9± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Robert GasserMIL
    3.3± 3.0low
  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.7± 2.0low
  • JR RitchieATL
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

36.5%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    35.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    32.1%

    P(ATL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    33.7%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.42 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.