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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6MIL
MIL

MIL

66-44

8
2
WSH

WSH

44-66

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
28,869 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 8 · WSH 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL3110000218
WSH0020000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Christian Yelich

Christian Yelich

DH

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

3

R

2

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Robert Hassell III

Robert Hassell III

CF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL66-44
8
2
WSH44-66
MIL66-44·WSH44-66
MIL

MIL

66-44

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
2-22120000
SPRINT28.790
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-44100011
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
1-55010001
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
3-44332111
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-55022000
SPRINT27.867
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
2-55121001
SPRINT28.586
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
3-55131000
SPRINT28.586
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
1-44010000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44110000
B. LockridgeB. LockridgeLF
0-11001011
Team15-39398157135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WoodruffB. Woodruff★SP
6.0122181
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0000100
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0100000
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0000000
Team9.0222281
WSH

WSH

44-66

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT28.483
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-44000002
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-22000010
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
0-33000001
B. HouseB. House★3B
0-33000002
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT29.395
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-22100011
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
1-33112101
Team2-2828222128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. IrvinJ. Irvin★SP
4.0855221
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
3.0522120
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0000010
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
1.0211000
Team9.01588351

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • B. Woodruff
    88 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.0 mph·24% whiff
    • SI
      27%·93.8 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      23%·84.5 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      56%·96.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      22%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      11%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      88%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • N. Mears
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • CU
      38%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • J. Irvin
    75 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      43%·91.3 mph·15% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.9 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      15%·74.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    60 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      47%·90.7 mph·6% whiff
    • CH
      22%·80.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      22%·80.9 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      8%·72.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      58%·94.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • CH
      40%·84.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      40%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.0 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

2

8

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Aug 1MILMIL16@WSHWSH9
Aug 2MILMIL8@WSHWSH2today
Aug 3MILMIL14@WSHWSH3

Season series

MIL leads series 5-0

Jul 12WSHWSH3@MILMIL8
Jul 12WSHWSH5@MILMIL6
Jul 13WSHWSH1@MILMIL8
Aug 1MILMIL16@WSHWSH9
Aug 2MILMIL8@WSHWSH2today
Aug 3MILMIL14@WSHWSH3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

MILMIL
C. Yelich

C. Yelich

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

B. Woodruff

B. Woodruff

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
R. Hassell III

R. Hassell III

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

J. Irvin

J. Irvin

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

How it ended

MIL beat WSH 8-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 64% WP

Yelich · singled to right, Frelick scored, Contreras to second.

WSHBottom 3rd Inning · 5-2
+10pp→ 19% WP

Hassell III · homered to right (416 feet), Adams scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL3110000218
WSH0020000002

Period scoring

MIL won 4 · WSH won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Yelich 1

1
0

Inn 2

Contreras 1

1
2

Inn 3

Yelich 1

III 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Turang 1

1
0

Inn 9

Collins 1

MIL
WSH

Play-by-play · 548 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  3. B9

    García Jr. grounded out to first.

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  6. B9

    Nick Mears pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  7. B9

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  8. B9

    Wood flied out to center.

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  11. B9

    Nick Mears pitches to James Wood

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  12. B9

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  13. B9

    Abrams grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  18. B9

    Nick Mears pitches to CJ Abrams

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  19. B9

    Mears relieved Uribe

    ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  20. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  21. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  22. T9

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  23. T9

    Turang grounded out to third.

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  26. T9

    Jackson Rutledge pitches to Brice Turang

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  27. T9

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  28. T9

    Perkins lined out to left.

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

  30. T9

    Jackson Rutledge pitches to Blake Perkins

    · ·

    MIL 8·WSH 2

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

8

Runs

2

15

Hits

2

0

Errors

1

24

TB

5

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

5

K

8

25

LOB

3

Win probability

WSH vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Brice TurangMIL · 2B
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

WSH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Kyle HarrisonMIL
    6.1± 4.9low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low

Hits

  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Andrew VaughnMIL
    1.1± 1.3medium

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high
  • Curtis MeadWSH
    0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.4± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    35.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    32.2%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    36.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 93
    87
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 92
    85
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 91
    814
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 88
    165
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 88
    816
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 87
    83
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs