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FINAL+1MIL
MIL

MIL

70-44

5
4
ATL

ATL

47-66

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
30,964 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

MIL 5 · ATL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIL +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIL0101300005
ATL1000110014

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Aug 6·Final/SeriesMIL wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Milwaukee Brewers went into Atlanta Braves and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIL · top performer

MIL
Blake Perkins

Blake Perkins

CF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Nick Allen

Nick Allen

SS

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIL70-44
5
4
ATL47-66
MIL70-44·ATL47-66
MIL

MIL

70-44

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. FrelickS. Frelick★RF
2-44020011
SPRINT28.790
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★C
0-55000002
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
3-44130010
SPRINT27.867
C. YelichC. Yelich★DH
1-55110003
SPRINT27.148
A. VaughnA. Vaughn★1B
2-44122101
B. PerkinsB. Perkins★CF
3-55232101
SPRINT28.586
B. TurangB. Turang★2B
1-44011000
A. SeiglerA. Seigler★2B
1-22010000
J. OrtizJ. Ortiz★SS
1-44010000
C. DurbinC. Durbin3B
0-22000000
Team14-39395145228
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
6.0733071
J. KoenigJ. KoenigRP
1.0000010
A. UribeA. UribeRP
1.0000020
T. MegillT. MegillRP
1.0111011
Team9.08440112
ATL

ATL

47-66

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. WhiteE. White★CF
0-44001001
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.354
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-44000003
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44010002
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
1-44011002
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
1-44111100
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44111100
SPRINT27.148
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-33110002
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
2-33020000
D. BaldwinD. BaldwinC
0-11000001
Team8-35354842011
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. StriderS. Strider★SP
4.21155162
A. BummerA. BummerRP
2.1200010
D. HernandezD. HernandezRP
1.0000100
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0100010
Team9.01455282

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIL

  • J. Quintana
    93 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      43%·91.0 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      19%·90.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.2 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      13%·78.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      8%·78.5 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Uribe
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      50%·99.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      50%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Megill
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      50%·99.8 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      50%·88.4 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Koenig
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      69%·97.0 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.5 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.9 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.7 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • S. Strider
    94 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.2 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      44%·84.9 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      2%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Bummer
    45 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      51%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Hernandez
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      44%·88.0 mph·25% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      27%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      27%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·81.4 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

8

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIL wins series 3-0

Aug 4MILMIL3@ATLATL1
Aug 5MILMIL7@ATLATL2
Aug 6MILMIL5@ATLATL4today

Season series

MIL wins series 4-2

Jun 9ATLATL7@MILMIL1
Jun 10ATLATL1@MILMIL4
Jun 11ATLATL6@MILMIL2
Aug 4MILMIL3@ATLATL1
Aug 5MILMIL7@ATLATL2
Aug 6MILMIL5@ATLATL4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIL ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 5th Inning

MILMIL
B. Perkins

B. Perkins

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

J. Quintana

J. Quintana

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 7 H

ATLATL
N. Allen

N. Allen

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

S. Strider

S. Strider

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 11 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIL beat ATL 5-4.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATL vs MIL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MILTop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+11pp→ 50% WP

Turang · doubled to left, Perkins scored.

MILTop 4th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 64% WP

Vaughn · homered to center (409 feet).

MILTop 5th Inning · 5-1
+13pp→ 90% WP

Perkins · homered to right (377 feet), Yelich scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIL0101300005
ATL1000110014

Period scoring

MIL won 3 · ATL won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Murphy 1

1
0

Inn 2

Turang 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Vaughn 1

3
1

Inn 5

Perkins 2

White 1

0
1

Inn 6

Profar 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
1

Inn 9

II 1

MIL
ATL

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  2. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  3. B9

    Baldwin struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  10. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Drake Baldwin

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  11. B9

    Baldwin hit for Alvarez Jr.

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  12. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  13. B9

    Harris II homered to right center (451 feet).

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

    +2pp

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  15. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Michael Harris II

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 4

  16. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  17. B9

    Profar grounded out to second.

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

    −3pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  20. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Jurickson Profar

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  21. B9

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  22. B9

    Murphy grounded out to third.

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

    −4pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  28. B9

    Trevor Megill pitches to Sean Murphy

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  29. B9

    Megill relieved Uribe

    ·

    MIL 5·ATL 3

  30. B9

    Monasterio at first base.

    MIL 5·ATL 3

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

5

Runs

4

14

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

25

TB

15

2

HR

2

2

BB

0

8

K

11

15

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Eli WhiteATL · CF
    SPRINT30.499+
  • Brandon LockridgeMIL · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Sal FrelickMIL · RF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Blake PerkinsMIL · CF
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

ATL vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
    9.0± 2.7low
  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.3± 1.4high
  • William ContrerasMIL
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.4± 3.2high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.8± 1.6high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Jake BauersMIL
    0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Brandon SproatMIL
    2.9± 2.1low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    2.0± 1.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.0%

ensemble · MIL favored

  • Elo Static

    34.7%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    34.1%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    35.0%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 98
    87
    15(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 92
    88
    20(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 20, 25sim 92
    81
    24(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 4, 25sim 91
    83
    15(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 21, 25sim 89
    81
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 87
    165
    4(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs