HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBEnd 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -12.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7BAL
TOR

TOR

63-44

4
11
BAL

BAL

48-58

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
20,176 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

TOR

league avg

BAL

BAL

.702

OPS

.715

▶

.727

.314

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.53

1.27

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

TOR 4 · BAL 11 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TOR +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0031000004
BAL0330401011

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Toronto Blue Jays, 11–4. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1C. BassittTOR−54.0pp
  2. 2Z. EflinBAL−31.1pp
  3. 3R. O'HearnBAL+30.2pp

TOR · top performer

TOR
Myles Straw

Myles Straw

RF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Cedric Mullins

Cedric Mullins

CF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
N. LukesRF
.2645111102
G. SpringerDH
.2913100011
V. Guerrero Jr.1B
.2944122110
B. Bichette3B
.2955040000
A. BargerRF
.2644000002
E. Clement2B
.2784110001
J. LoperfidoLF
.3413010001
T. HeinemanC
.3273010000
W. Wagner3B
.2363001000
- L. Jimenez3B
.0710000000
- M. StrawRF
.2461010000
- D. SchneiderLF
.2051000000
Team364114227

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. BassittSP
2.17661469
M. FluhartyRP
1.22000124
B. LittleRP
0.14441124
T. NanceRP
1.21000117
J. BruihlRP
1.02111013
B. FisherRP
1.00000011
Team8.016111137158

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. Holliday2B
.2605000003
J. Westburg3B
.2585130000
G. HendersonSS
.2794100011
A. RutschmanC
.2355232001
R. O'HearnRF
.2845221001
R. LaureanoLF
.2794123101
C. CowserRF
.2193211110
C. MullinsCF
.2213122110
C. Mayo3B
.2404132100
Team38111611437

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
Z. EflinSP
4.18441379
C. MartinRP
1.21000421
C. SelbyRP
1.01000010
G. WolframRP
1.01000012
K. StrowdRP
1.00001016
Team9.0114427138

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • C. Bassitt
    69 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      43%·91.9 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      17%·71.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      16%·89.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      1%·71.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      75%·91.2 mph·18% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      58%·93.2 mph·17% whiff
    • KC
      38%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      4%·93.6 mph·— whiff
  • T. Nance
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      53%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·84.9 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      54%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      31%·77.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      15%·84.9 mph·— whiff
  • B. Fisher
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • CU
      27%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·92.8 mph·100% whiff

BAL

  • Z. Eflin
    79 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      24%·86.3 mph·18% whiff
    • FC
      23%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·78.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.9 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      14%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Martin
    21 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      29%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Strowd
    16 pitches·6% CSW
    • FC
      69%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      13%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Selby
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      60%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      10%·82.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

16

4

Runs

11

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 4-2

Apr 11TORTOR0@BALBAL0
Apr 12TORTOR4@BALBAL5
Apr 13TORTOR7@BALBAL6
Jul 28TORTOR4@BALBAL11today
Jul 29TORTOR4@BALBAL16
Jul 29TORTOR2@BALBAL3
Jul 30TORTOR9@BALBAL8

Season series

BAL leads series 4-3

Mar 27BALBAL12@TORTOR2
Mar 28BALBAL2@TORTOR8
Mar 29BALBAL9@TORTOR5
Mar 30BALBAL1@TORTOR3
Apr 11TORTOR0@BALBAL0
Apr 12TORTOR4@BALBAL5
Apr 13TORTOR7@BALBAL6
Jul 28TORTOR4@BALBAL11today
Jul 29TORTOR4@BALBAL16
Jul 29TORTOR2@BALBAL3
Jul 30TORTOR9@BALBAL8
Sep 12BALBAL1@TORTOR6
Sep 13BALBAL4@TORTOR5
Sep 14BALBAL2@TORTOR11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

TORTOR
M. Straw

M. Straw

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
C. Mullins

C. Mullins

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

Z. Eflin

Z. Eflin

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat TOR 11-4. Mullins's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

BAL vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+22pp→ 69% WP

Mullins · homered to right (408 feet), O'Hearn scored.

TORTop 3rd Inning · 3-3
+21pp→ 50% WP

Guerrero Jr. · homered to center (398 feet), Springer scored.

BALBottom 3rd Inning · 3-5
+17pp→ 78% WP

Rutschman · doubled to center, Henderson scored and Westburg scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0031000004
BAL03304010—11

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · BAL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Mullins 2

3
3

Inn 3

Jr. 2

Rutschman 2

1
0

Inn 4

Wagner 1

0
4

Inn 5

Laureano 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Cowser 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TOR
BAL

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  2. T9

    Bichette grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Guerrero Jr. out at second.

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  6. T9

    Kade Strowd pitches to Bo Bichette

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  7. T9

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  8. T9

    Guerrero Jr. walked, Jiménez to second.

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  14. T9

    Kade Strowd pitches to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    · ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  15. T9

    Jiménez ran for Springer

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  16. T9

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  17. T9

    Springer hit by pitch.

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  19. T9

    Kade Strowd pitches to George Springer

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  20. T9

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  21. T9

    Lukes grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  29. T9

    Kade Strowd pitches to Nathan Lukes

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

  30. T9

    Strowd relieved Wolfram

    ·

    TOR 4·BAL 11

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

4

Runs

11

11

Hits

16

1

Errors

0

19

TB

32

2

HR

4

2

BB

3

7

K

7

17

LOB

15

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · RF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dylan CeaseTOR
    8.5± 2.9low
  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.5± 2.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.2± 3.1low

Hits

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Taylor WardBAL
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.3high
  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.9± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Adley RutschmanBAL
    1.1± 1.6high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Coby MayoBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Max ScherzerTOR
    4.2± 4.0low
  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.4low
  • Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
    3.2± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    41.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    38.7%

    P(BAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    41.3%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.