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FINAL+1SEA
TEX

TEX

57-54

3
4
SEA

SEA

59-52

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
40,984 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TEX 3 · SEA 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0030000003
SEA0100100024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 28, 25sim 99
    195
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 98
    210
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 98
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 96
    130
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    184
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    211
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Aug 1·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Texas Rangers, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX57-54
3
4
SEA59-52
TEX57-54·SEA59-52
TEX

TEX

57-54

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
1-44111000
SPRINT27.354
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-44000001
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44000000
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-44000003
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
1-44010002
SPRINT2872
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-11110000
SPRINT25.716
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-22110001
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-33000002
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
1-22010000
E. DuranE. Duran2B
0-11000000
Team6-33333620010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
4.1322370
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.2200100
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
1.0000020
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0000110
Team8.07445101
SEA

SEA

59-52

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-44000002
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-33010012
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-33011010
SPRINT23.81
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44110001
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
2-44020002
SPRINT25.310
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-33010011
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44112101
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-11101020
SPRINT27.662
Team7-30304741510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
6.0533070
G. SpeierG. SpeierRP
1.1100020
M. BrashM. BrashRP
0.2000000
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.0000010
Team9.06330100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

  • D. Coulombe
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FC
      48%·85.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      35%·90.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      4%·81.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Garcia
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·88.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      29%·89.2 mph·67% whiff
  • P. Maton
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      53%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·75.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·89.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      7%·83.5 mph·0% whiff

SEA

  • M. Brash
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • SL
      70%·86.1 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·90.4 mph·— whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      67%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Speier
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.6 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

1

Current series

SEA wins series 6-1

Apr 12TEXTEX3@SEASEA5
Apr 13TEXTEX2@SEASEA9
Apr 13TEXTEX1@SEASEA3
Aug 1TEXTEX0@SEASEA6
Aug 2TEXTEX3@SEASEA4today
Aug 2TEXTEX6@SEASEA4
Aug 3TEXTEX4@SEASEA5

Season series

SEA leads series 9-2

Apr 12TEXTEX3@SEASEA5
Apr 13TEXTEX2@SEASEA9
Apr 13TEXTEX1@SEASEA3
May 3SEASEA13@TEXTEX1
May 3SEASEA2@TEXTEX1
May 4SEASEA1@TEXTEX8
Jun 28SEASEA7@TEXTEX6
Jun 28SEASEA2@TEXTEX3
Jun 29SEASEA6@TEXTEX4
Aug 1TEXTEX0@SEASEA6
Aug 2TEXTEX3@SEASEA4today
Aug 2TEXTEX6@SEASEA4
Aug 3TEXTEX4@SEASEA5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 70pp · Bottom 9th Inning

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

SEASEA
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 5 H

How it ended

SEA beat TEX 4-3. Crawford's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (70pp).

Win probability

SEA vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 5th Inning · 3-2
+15pp→ 48% WP

Naylor · doubled to left, Young scored, Rodríguez to third.

TEXTop 7th Inning · 3-2
+16pp→ 74% WP

Haggerty · doubled to right.

SEABottom 9th Inning · 3-4
+70pp→ 100% WP

Crawford · homered to right (370 feet), Mastrobuoni scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0030000003
SEA0100100024

Period scoring

TEX won 1 · SEA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Young 1

3
0

Inn 3

Tellez 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Naylor 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
2

Inn 9

Crawford 2

TEX
SEA

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 4

  2. B9

    Crawford homered to right (370 feet), Mastrobuoni scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    TEX 3·SEA 4

    +70pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 3·SEA 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  6. B9

    Robert Garcia pitches to J.P. Crawford

    · ·

    TEX 3·SEA 4

  7. B9

    Mastrobuoni ran for Canzone

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  8. B9

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  9. B9

    Canzone singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

    +14pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  12. B9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Dominic Canzone

    · ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  13. B9

    R. Garcia relieved Maton

    · ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  14. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  15. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  16. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  17. T9

    Haggerty grounded out to third.

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  21. T9

    Eduard Bazardo pitches to Sam Haggerty

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  22. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  23. T9

    Langford flied out to center.

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

    +0.7pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  26. T9

    Eduard Bazardo pitches to Wyatt Langford

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  27. T9

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  28. T9

    Carter struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

    +1pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 3·SEA 2

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

9

TB

11

0

HR

1

0

BB

5

10

K

10

10

LOB

18

Player projections

SEA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    52.6%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.1%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.1%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872