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Live · 4
  • MLBMid 3
    PHI 1@LAD 1
    -17.7pphigh
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    +51.0pplow
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    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
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    +58.9pplow
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FINAL+6SEA
TEX

TEX

57-53

0
6
SEA

SEA

58-52

T-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
28,293 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

TEX 0 · SEA 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0000000000
SEA000123006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

58%Last 7 · 69-50
61%Last 30 · 332-209
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 30, 25sim 98
    211
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 97
    192
    17(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    210
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 96
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 28, 25sim 96
    195
    17(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 96
    195
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Jul 31·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners held off Texas Rangers, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Corey Seager

Corey Seager

SS

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

SEA · top performer

SEA
Cole Young

Cole Young

2B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX57-53
0
6
SEA58-52
TEX57-53·SEA58-52
TEX

TEX

57-53

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-44000003
SPRINT27.354
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-33010012
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-22000001
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
0-33000000
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-22000011
R. TellezR. Tellez★1B
1-33010000
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000001
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-22000001
Team4-3030040029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. RockerK. Rocker★SP
4.2633232
J. LatzJ. LatzRP
1.1232110
L. CurveloL. CurveloRP
2.0100030
Team8.0965372
SEA

SEA

58-52

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-33010010
C. RaleighC. Raleigh★C
1-44111100
SPRINT25.716
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-44000001
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010002
E. SuarezE. Suarez★DH
1-44110001
SPRINT25.818
J. PolancoJ. Polanco★1B
0-22100020
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT25.920
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-44111002
SPRINT25.513
C. YoungC. Young★2B
2-44222100
SPRINT27.662
Team9-3333694237
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. KirbyG. Kirby★SP
6.0300260
C. FergusonC. FergusonRP
1.0000000
T. ThorntonT. ThorntonRP
1.2100020
C. LeguminaC. LeguminaRP
0.1000010
Team9.0400290

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

9

0

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 6-1

Apr 12TEXTEX3@SEASEA5
Apr 13TEXTEX2@SEASEA9
Apr 13TEXTEX1@SEASEA3
Aug 1TEXTEX0@SEASEA6today
Aug 2TEXTEX3@SEASEA4
Aug 2TEXTEX6@SEASEA4
Aug 3TEXTEX4@SEASEA5

Season series

SEA leads series 8-2

Apr 12TEXTEX3@SEASEA5
Apr 13TEXTEX2@SEASEA9
Apr 13TEXTEX1@SEASEA3
May 3SEASEA13@TEXTEX1
May 3SEASEA2@TEXTEX1
May 4SEASEA1@TEXTEX8
Jun 28SEASEA7@TEXTEX6
Jun 28SEASEA2@TEXTEX3
Jun 29SEASEA6@TEXTEX4
Aug 1TEXTEX0@SEASEA6today
Aug 2TEXTEX3@SEASEA4
Aug 2TEXTEX6@SEASEA4
Aug 3TEXTEX4@SEASEA5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ SEA

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 4th Inning

TEXTEX
C. Seager

C. Seager

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

K. Rocker

K. Rocker

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

SEASEA
C. Young

C. Young

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

G. Kirby

G. Kirby

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat TEX 6-0.

Win probability

SEA vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEABottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 70% WP

Arozarena · walked.

SEABottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 74% WP

Canzone · singled to right.

SEABottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+9pp→ 86% WP

Young · homered to right (456 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0000000000
SEA00012300—6

Period scoring

TEX won 0 · SEA won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Canzone 1

0
2

Inn 5

Young 1

0
3

Inn 6

Crawford 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

TEX
SEA

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  2. T9

    Haggerty struck out looking.

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  10. T9

    Casey Legumina pitches to Sam Haggerty

    · ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  11. T9

    Legumina relieved Thornton

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  12. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  13. T9

    A. García reached on infield single to first.

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  20. T9

    Trent Thornton pitches to Adolis Garcia

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  21. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  22. T9

    Semien grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  24. T9

    Trent Thornton pitches to Marcus Semien

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  25. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  26. T9

    Seager struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·SEA 6

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

0

Runs

6

4

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

5

TB

18

0

HR

2

2

BB

3

9

K

7

10

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SEA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • George KirbySEA
    2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.2%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.7%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.